Polymarket traders assign a 43.5% implied probability to 4-7 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on April 19, narrowly ahead of 8-11 at 37%, capturing closely contested sentiment amid the U.S. naval blockade imposed April 13 targeting Iran-linked vessels during the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict. Recent ship-tracking data reveals volatility, with 19 transits on April 14 (outbound-heavy) and 16 on April 15, rebounding from March's ~7 daily average but still 90% below pre-war norms of 130+, as selective enforcement allows limited Iranian-flagged passages via re-flagging or coastal routing. Differentiating factors include U.S. Central Command intercepts versus evasion tactics, with Brent crude at $97.61/bbl reflecting subdued risk premiums; weekend escalations or de-escalation signals could sway the deadlock before Saturday's resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於4-7 44%
8-11 38%
<4 9%
12-15 8%
最新
最新
2026-04-19
<4
9%
4-7
44%
8-11
38%
12-15
8%
16-19
6%
20+
3%
4-7 44%
8-11 38%
<4 9%
12-15 8%
最新
最新
2026-04-19
<4
$1,724 交易量
9%
4-7
$1,145 交易量
44%
8-11
$711 交易量
38%
12-15
$541 交易量
8%
16-19
$529 交易量
6%
20+
$2,859 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.Polymarket traders assign a 43.5% implied probability to 4-7 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on April 19, narrowly ahead of 8-11 at 37%, capturing closely contested sentiment amid the U.S. naval blockade imposed April 13 targeting Iran-linked vessels during the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict. Recent ship-tracking data reveals volatility, with 19 transits on April 14 (outbound-heavy) and 16 on April 15, rebounding from March's ~7 daily average but still 90% below pre-war norms of 130+, as selective enforcement allows limited Iranian-flagged passages via re-flagging or coastal routing. Differentiating factors include U.S. Central Command intercepts versus evasion tactics, with Brent crude at $97.61/bbl reflecting subdued risk premiums; weekend escalations or de-escalation signals could sway the deadlock before Saturday's resolution.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
市場開放時間： Apr 13, 2026, 3:36 PM ET
交易量
$7,509結束日期
2026-04-19市場開放時間
Apr 13, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.Polymarket traders assign a 43.5% implied probability to 4-7 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on April 19, narrowly ahead of 8-11 at 37%, capturing closely contested sentiment amid the U.S. naval blockade imposed April 13 targeting Iran-linked vessels during the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict. Recent ship-tracking data reveals volatility, with 19 transits on April 14 (outbound-heavy) and 16 on April 15, rebounding from March's ~7 daily average but still 90% below pre-war norms of 130+, as selective enforcement allows limited Iranian-flagged passages via re-flagging or coastal routing. Differentiating factors include U.S. Central Command intercepts versus evasion tactics, with Brent crude at $97.61/bbl reflecting subdued risk premiums; weekend escalations or de-escalation signals could sway the deadlock before Saturday's resolution.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
交易量
$7,509結束日期
2026-04-19市場開放時間
Apr 13, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders assign a 43.5% implied probability to 4-7 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on April 19, narrowly ahead of 8-11 at 37%, capturing closely contested sentiment amid the U.S. naval blockade imposed April 13 targeting Iran-linked vessels during the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict. Recent ship-tracking data reveals volatility, with 19 transits on April 14 (outbound-heavy) and 16 on April 15, rebounding from March's ~7 daily average but still 90% below pre-war norms of 130+, as selective enforcement allows limited Iranian-flagged passages via re-flagging or coastal routing. Differentiating factors include U.S. Central Command intercepts versus evasion tactics, with Brent crude at $97.61/bbl reflecting subdued risk premiums; weekend escalations or de-escalation signals could sway the deadlock before Saturday's resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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