California voters will decide Proposition 43 on November 3, 2026, a legislatively referred constitutional amendment that would require a two-thirds vote for citizen-initiated local special taxes rather than the current simple majority. The measure emerged from a June 2026 compromise deal between Democratic lawmakers, business groups, and the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association to remove a stricter competing initiative from the ballot. Public employee unions, local government associations, and special districts have organized against it, citing risks of lower future revenues for services amid an uncertain fiscal impact. These factors have produced a modest trader consensus favoring rejection at 56.5% implied probability for “No,” reflecting organized opposition and the measure’s limits on revenue-raising tools without retroactive effects.