Traders' 90.5% consensus on "No" stems from Citrini Research's completion of Analyst #3's high-risk field mission to the Strait of Hormuz, detailed in their April 5 report documenting selective shipping traffic amid Iranian oversight signals. The anonymous analyst, equipped for on-the-ground verification of oil flows through this critical chokepoint, returned stateside by mid-April with no official announcements of redeployment, as confirmed by recent social media glimpses. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including potential toll-like operations and de-escalation cues, appear sufficiently covered without necessitating a return before April 30 resolution, though a late-breaking escalation or fresh diplomatic developments could prompt an unexpected dispatch.