Traders overwhelmingly back an 80–90 per 100,000 cumulative flu hospitalization rate for CDC FluSurv-NET data through week 11, 2026 (mid-March), reflecting historical medians from moderate-severity seasons like 2022–23 (~82 by week 11) and 2019–20 (~85), when H3N2 or B/Victoria strains drove typical winter peaks before tapering. This positioning aligns with peer-reviewed epidemiology showing seasonal baselines stabilizing around 70–100 per 100k by late flu activity, per CDC archives spanning 2010–2024. Supporting evidence includes stable vaccine strain matches projected for 2025–26 and no early avian spillover signals. Challenges could arise from antigenic drift sparking 100+ rates (as in 2017–18's 110+) or enhanced immunity from prior exposures yielding <70, though mild-season precedents like 2023–24 (~45) remain outliers.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 11, 2026?
Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 11, 2026?
80–90 96.4%
70–80 1.8%
90–100 1.3%
60–70 <1%
$15,064 交易量
$15,064 交易量
<60
<1%
60–70
1%
70–80
2%
80–90
96%
90–100
1%
100+
1%
80–90 96.4%
70–80 1.8%
90–100 1.3%
60–70 <1%
$15,064 交易量
$15,064 交易量
<60
<1%
60–70
1%
70–80
2%
80–90
96%
90–100
1%
100+
1%
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
市場開放時間: Mar 20, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders overwhelmingly back an 80–90 per 100,000 cumulative flu hospitalization rate for CDC FluSurv-NET data through week 11, 2026 (mid-March), reflecting historical medians from moderate-severity seasons like 2022–23 (~82 by week 11) and 2019–20 (~85), when H3N2 or B/Victoria strains drove typical winter peaks before tapering. This positioning aligns with peer-reviewed epidemiology showing seasonal baselines stabilizing around 70–100 per 100k by late flu activity, per CDC archives spanning 2010–2024. Supporting evidence includes stable vaccine strain matches projected for 2025–26 and no early avian spillover signals. Challenges could arise from antigenic drift sparking 100+ rates (as in 2017–18's 110+) or enhanced immunity from prior exposures yielding <70, though mild-season precedents like 2023–24 (~45) remain outliers.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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