Skip to main content

OpenAI 預測與賠率

·
哪家公司在6月底有最好的人工智能模型?

哪家公司在6月底有最好的人工智能模型?

63%

Anthropic

$5M 交易量

$832K Liq.

61

Ends 2 個月內

伊隆·馬斯克會贏得對山姆·奧特曼的官司嗎?

伊隆·馬斯克會贏得對山姆·奧特曼的官司嗎?

43%

$145K 交易量

$31.6K Liq.

22

Ends 8 個月內

GPT-6由… ?

GPT-6由… ?

85%

2026年12月31日

$290K 交易量

$12.3K Liq.

45

Ends 4 個月前

2026年OpenAI會推出什麼樣的產品?

2026年OpenAI會推出什麼樣的產品?

29%

手錶

$170K 交易量

$24.9K Liq.

13

Ends 8 個月內

2026年市值最大的IPO ?

2026年市值最大的IPO ?

88%

SpaceX

$2M 交易量

$174K Liq.

10

Ends 8 個月內

哪家公司在6月底擁有第二好的AI模型?

哪家公司在6月底擁有第二好的AI模型?

55%

Anthropic

$366K 交易量

$60.6K Liq.

51

Ends 2 個月內

截至6月底,哪家公司的人工智能模型排名最高? (樣式控制開啓)

截至6月底,哪家公司的人工智能模型排名最高? (樣式控制開啓)

50%

Anthropic

$1M 交易量

$177K Liq.

19

Ends 2 個月內

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in May 2026?

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in May 2026?

42%

<2

$1.7K 交易量

$12.8K Liq.

Ends 大約 1 個月內

GPT-5.6 released by...?

GPT-5.6 released by...?

80%

July 31

$1.7K 交易量

$8.4K Liq.

Ends 3 個月內

OpenAI IPO收市市值

OpenAI IPO收市市值

68%

2026年12月31日前未進行IPO

$2M 交易量

$44.3K Liq.

Ends 8 個月內

2026年OpenAI估值超過1萬$ ?

2026年OpenAI估值超過1萬$ ?

82%

$21.8K 交易量

$1.7K Liq.

Ends 8 個月內

Elon Musk與Altman/OpenAI贏得了$ 100億以上的和解?

Elon Musk與Altman/OpenAI贏得了$ 100億以上的和解?

7%

$17.9K 交易量

$5.4K Liq.

Ends 8 個月內

Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?

Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?

29%

$3.2K 交易量

$4.8K Liq.

2

Ends 8 個月內

6月30日前FrontierMath Benchmark上的OpenAI GPT得分?

6月30日前FrontierMath Benchmark上的OpenAI GPT得分?

40%

60%+

$30.1K 交易量

$1.7K Liq.

4

Ends 2 個月內

哪家公司的人工智能將在2026年首次在聊天機器人競技場上達到1550 ?

哪家公司的人工智能將在2026年首次在聊天機器人競技場上達到1550 ?

45%

Anthropic

$39.4K 交易量

$12.3K Liq.

3

Ends 8 個月內

OpenAI IPO收市市值高於___ ?

OpenAI IPO收市市值高於___ ?

88%

8,000億美元

$1M 交易量

$5.3K Liq.

2

Ends 超過 1 年內

山姆·奧特曼會指證馬斯克嗎?

山姆·奧特曼會指證馬斯克嗎?

85%

$1.8K 交易量

$1.6K Liq.

2

OpenAI GPT在6月30日之前在人類的最後一次考試中得分?

OpenAI GPT在6月30日之前在人類的最後一次考試中得分?

29%

50%以上

$20.8K 交易量

$978 Liq.

1

Ends 2 個月內

OpenAI宣布已在2027年之前實現AGI ?

OpenAI宣布已在2027年之前實現AGI ?

14%

$65.7K 交易量

$5.9K Liq.

9

Ends 8 個月內

SpaceX還是OpenAI的IPO市值更高?

SpaceX還是OpenAI的IPO市值更高?

85%

SpaceX

$7.6K 交易量

$13.3K Liq.

5

Ends 超過 1 年內

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like OpenAI.

Polymarket currently hosts 20 active markets for OpenAI that lets you track or trade on predictions like “哪家公司在6月底有最好的人工智能模型?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $12.3M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “OpenAI宣布已在2027年之前實現AGI ?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “哪家公司在6月底有最好的人工智能模型?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “哪家公司在6月底有最好的人工智能模型?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 63% chance to Anthropic. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on OpenAI predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.