Latest ensemble forecasts from Argentina's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and global models like ECMWF indicate a high near 26°C in Buenos Aires on March 25, driving trader consensus with 27% implied probability for that outcome, edging out 25°C at 25%. Tight clustering around 23-27°C reflects model uncertainty from variable southerly winds potentially moderating daytime heating amid typical autumn warmth, where historical March highs average 24-25°C. Subtle differences hinge on cloud cover evolution and urban heat island amplification; lower odds for extremes stem from stable atmospheric patterns lacking heatwave triggers or cold fronts, per recent 00Z runs. Traders eye afternoon SMN updates for resolution shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on March 25?
Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on March 25?
26°C 27%
25°C 25%
23°C 18%
24°C 18%
20°C or below
2%
21°C
12%
22°C
15%
23°C
18%
24°C
18%
25°C
25%
26°C
27%
27°C
18%
28°C
15%
29°C
12%
30°C or higher
2%
26°C 27%
25°C 25%
23°C 18%
24°C 18%
20°C or below
2%
21°C
12%
22°C
15%
23°C
18%
24°C
18%
25°C
25%
26°C
27%
27°C
18%
28°C
15%
29°C
12%
30°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Mar 21, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from Argentina's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and global models like ECMWF indicate a high near 26°C in Buenos Aires on March 25, driving trader consensus with 27% implied probability for that outcome, edging out 25°C at 25%. Tight clustering around 23-27°C reflects model uncertainty from variable southerly winds potentially moderating daytime heating amid typical autumn warmth, where historical March highs average 24-25°C. Subtle differences hinge on cloud cover evolution and urban heat island amplification; lower odds for extremes stem from stable atmospheric patterns lacking heatwave triggers or cold fronts, per recent 00Z runs. Traders eye afternoon SMN updates for resolution shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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