Recent forecasts indicate Warsaw will cool from a midweek heat peak exceeding 35°C as a frontal system brings increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and lighter winds by August 7, limiting daytime insolation and capping the maximum near 25–26°C. Numerical weather prediction models show close agreement on this transition, with minor spreads arising from differences in simulated cloud thickness, precipitation timing, and boundary-layer mixing that can shift the daily high by 1°C. Historical August climatology places typical maxima around 23–25°C, so the current setup aligns with a modest positive anomaly that traders have priced into the near-even split between the 25°C and 26°C outcomes, while assigning low probability to extremes given the expected stabilization of the pattern. Updated model runs and official guidance from European meteorological centers will refine these details ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月7日華沙的最高溫度?
25°C 36%
26°C 33%
27°C 16%
24°C 12%
22°C or below
3%
23°C
4%
24°C
12%
25°C
36%
26°C
33%
27°C
16%
28°C
3%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
25°C 36%
26°C 33%
27°C 16%
24°C 12%
22°C or below
3%
23°C
4%
24°C
12%
25°C
36%
26°C
33%
27°C
16%
28°C
3%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間: Aug 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecasts indicate Warsaw will cool from a midweek heat peak exceeding 35°C as a frontal system brings increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and lighter winds by August 7, limiting daytime insolation and capping the maximum near 25–26°C. Numerical weather prediction models show close agreement on this transition, with minor spreads arising from differences in simulated cloud thickness, precipitation timing, and boundary-layer mixing that can shift the daily high by 1°C. Historical August climatology places typical maxima around 23–25°C, so the current setup aligns with a modest positive anomaly that traders have priced into the near-even split between the 25°C and 26°C outcomes, while assigning low probability to extremes given the expected stabilization of the pattern. Updated model runs and official guidance from European meteorological centers will refine these details ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於



警惕外部連結哦。
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