Traders assign overwhelming probability to a 12°C maximum in Wellington on August 7 because official forecasts from MetService and climatological data converge on this value, matching the long-term August average high of roughly 12°C under typical winter maritime conditions. Persistent southerly flows and near-average seasonal temperatures, with no significant warm advection or blocking high expected, keep readings tightly clustered around this benchmark. The strong market consensus reflects real-time model agreement and the low day-to-day variability typical for the region in early August. A late-day frontal passage bringing unexpected northerly winds or a measurement anomaly at the official station could still shift the outcome, though current observations make such changes unlikely.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月7日惠靈頓的最高溫度？
8月7日惠靈頓的最高溫度？
12°C 100.0%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
$188,266 交易量
$188,266 交易量
2026-08-07
7°C or below
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
Yes
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C or higher
No
12°C 100.0%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
$188,266 交易量
$188,266 交易量
2026-08-07
7°C or below
$6,224 交易量
No
8°C
$11,624 交易量
No
9°C
$30,932 交易量
No
10°C
$18,237 交易量
No
11°C
$51,808 交易量
No
12°C
$19,711 交易量
Yes
13°C
$22,194 交易量
No
14°C
$11,522 交易量
No
15°C
$3,863 交易量
No
16°C
$5,673 交易量
No
17°C or higher
$6,479 交易量
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign overwhelming probability to a 12°C maximum in Wellington on August 7 because official forecasts from MetService and climatological data converge on this value, matching the long-term August average high of roughly 12°C under typical winter maritime conditions. Persistent southerly flows and near-average seasonal temperatures, with no significant warm advection or blocking high expected, keep readings tightly clustered around this benchmark. The strong market consensus reflects real-time model agreement and the low day-to-day variability typical for the region in early August. A late-day frontal passage bringing unexpected northerly winds or a measurement anomaly at the official station could still shift the outcome, though current observations make such changes unlikely.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
交易量
$188,266結束日期
2026-08-07市場開放時間
Aug 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign overwhelming probability to a 12°C maximum in Wellington on August 7 because official forecasts from MetService and climatological data converge on this value, matching the long-term August average high of roughly 12°C under typical winter maritime conditions. Persistent southerly flows and near-average seasonal temperatures, with no significant warm advection or blocking high expected, keep readings tightly clustered around this benchmark. The strong market consensus reflects real-time model agreement and the low day-to-day variability typical for the region in early August. A late-day frontal passage bringing unexpected northerly winds or a measurement anomaly at the official station could still shift the outcome, though current observations make such changes unlikely.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$188,266結束日期
2026-08-07市場開放時間
Aug 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Traders assign overwhelming probability to a 12°C maximum in Wellington on August 7 because official forecasts from MetService and climatological data converge on this value, matching the long-term August average high of roughly 12°C under typical winter maritime conditions. Persistent southerly flows and near-average seasonal temperatures, with no significant warm advection or blocking high expected, keep readings tightly clustered around this benchmark. The strong market consensus reflects real-time model agreement and the low day-to-day variability typical for the region in early August. A late-day frontal passage bringing unexpected northerly winds or a measurement anomaly at the official station could still shift the outcome, though current observations make such changes unlikely.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions