Short-term ensemble forecasts from global and regional models, including those from the China Meteorological Administration, currently favor a daily high near 32°C in Beijing on August 8 amid a stable subtropical high-pressure ridge that limits cloud cover and supports modest daytime heating. Trader consensus, reflected in the 36.5% implied probability for 32°C versus 27.5% for 31°C and 16.5% for 33°C, tracks the tight spread in model guidance, where small differences in boundary-layer moisture, urban heat-island effects, and weak southerly flow can shift peak readings by 1–2°C. Historical August climatology shows Beijing averages around 31–33°C, providing context for the narrow distribution, while any late-day convection or wind shift could pull the outcome toward the lower side of the range. Updated model runs and official CMA guidance expected overnight will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月8日北京最高溫度？
8月8日北京最高溫度？
32°C 39%
31°C 28%
33°C 17%
30°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-08-08
26°C或以下
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
4%
30°C
13%
31°C
28%
32°C
39%
33°C
17%
34°C
5%
35°C
3%
36°C或以上
1%
32°C 39%
31°C 28%
33°C 17%
30°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-08-08
26°C或以下
$1,280 交易量
<1%
27°C
$1,104 交易量
<1%
28°C
$308 交易量
<1%
29°C
$241 交易量
4%
30°C
$500 交易量
13%
31°C
$376 交易量
28%
32°C
$850 交易量
39%
33°C
$783 交易量
17%
34°C
$375 交易量
5%
35°C
$188 交易量
3%
36°C或以上
$887 交易量
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term ensemble forecasts from global and regional models, including those from the China Meteorological Administration, currently favor a daily high near 32°C in Beijing on August 8 amid a stable subtropical high-pressure ridge that limits cloud cover and supports modest daytime heating. Trader consensus, reflected in the 36.5% implied probability for 32°C versus 27.5% for 31°C and 16.5% for 33°C, tracks the tight spread in model guidance, where small differences in boundary-layer moisture, urban heat-island effects, and weak southerly flow can shift peak readings by 1–2°C. Historical August climatology shows Beijing averages around 31–33°C, providing context for the narrow distribution, while any late-day convection or wind shift could pull the outcome toward the lower side of the range. Updated model runs and official CMA guidance expected overnight will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 6, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
交易量
$6,893結束日期
2026-08-08市場開放時間
Aug 6, 2026, 12:03 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term ensemble forecasts from global and regional models, including those from the China Meteorological Administration, currently favor a daily high near 32°C in Beijing on August 8 amid a stable subtropical high-pressure ridge that limits cloud cover and supports modest daytime heating. Trader consensus, reflected in the 36.5% implied probability for 32°C versus 27.5% for 31°C and 16.5% for 33°C, tracks the tight spread in model guidance, where small differences in boundary-layer moisture, urban heat-island effects, and weak southerly flow can shift peak readings by 1–2°C. Historical August climatology shows Beijing averages around 31–33°C, providing context for the narrow distribution, while any late-day convection or wind shift could pull the outcome toward the lower side of the range. Updated model runs and official CMA guidance expected overnight will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$6,893結束日期
2026-08-08市場開放時間
Aug 6, 2026, 12:03 AM ETShort-term ensemble forecasts from global and regional models, including those from the China Meteorological Administration, currently favor a daily high near 32°C in Beijing on August 8 amid a stable subtropical high-pressure ridge that limits cloud cover and supports modest daytime heating. Trader consensus, reflected in the 36.5% implied probability for 32°C versus 27.5% for 31°C and 16.5% for 33°C, tracks the tight spread in model guidance, where small differences in boundary-layer moisture, urban heat-island effects, and weak southerly flow can shift peak readings by 1–2°C. Historical August climatology shows Beijing averages around 31–33°C, providing context for the narrow distribution, while any late-day convection or wind shift could pull the outcome toward the lower side of the range. Updated model runs and official CMA guidance expected overnight will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions