Recent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models point to partly cloudy to overcast conditions with possible light showers in Shanghai on August 6, limiting daytime solar heating and supporting a daily maximum near 33°C as the leading market outcome at 47.5% implied probability. August's subtropical monsoon climate typically delivers highs of 31–35°C, but recent observations of 35–37°C peaks earlier in the month, combined with strengthening El Niño-driven warmth, keep 34°C viable at 30.5%. Traders weigh model consensus on steering patterns and humidity levels against the narrow window for intensification, with lower probabilities for 35°C+ reflecting limited evidence for clearer skies or stronger subsidence by resolution time.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月6日上海最高溫度?
33°C 48%
34°C 31%
32°C 16%
35°C 6%
$20,782 交易量
$20,782 交易量
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
4%
32°C
16%
33°C
48%
34°C
31%
35°C
6%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
<1%
33°C 48%
34°C 31%
32°C 16%
35°C 6%
$20,782 交易量
$20,782 交易量
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
4%
32°C
16%
33°C
48%
34°C
31%
35°C
6%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間: Aug 4, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models point to partly cloudy to overcast conditions with possible light showers in Shanghai on August 6, limiting daytime solar heating and supporting a daily maximum near 33°C as the leading market outcome at 47.5% implied probability. August's subtropical monsoon climate typically delivers highs of 31–35°C, but recent observations of 35–37°C peaks earlier in the month, combined with strengthening El Niño-driven warmth, keep 34°C viable at 30.5%. Traders weigh model consensus on steering patterns and humidity levels against the narrow window for intensification, with lower probabilities for 35°C+ reflecting limited evidence for clearer skies or stronger subsidence by resolution time.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions