Recent forecast models from Météo-France and ensemble runs point to Paris overnight lows stabilizing near 11°C on August 7 under clear to partly cloudy skies after a modest cooldown, which underpins the 99.5% market-implied odds for that exact minimum. This aligns with observational trends showing radiational cooling at urban stations amid light winds and moderate humidity, consistent with late-summer climatology where typical minima fall in the 14–17°C range. Traders assign negligible probability to 10°C or lower due to limited advection of cooler air masses. A realistic challenge could arise from localized microclimate effects at the official reporting station, a revised model consensus overnight, or unexpected cloud cover that reduces cooling rates before final dawn measurements.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月7日巴黎最低溫度？
8月7日巴黎最低溫度？
11°C 100.0%
9°C或以下 <1%
10°C <1%
12°C <1%
$26,486 交易量
$26,486 交易量
2026-08-07
9°C或以下
否
10°C
否
11°C
是
12°C
否
13°C
否
14°C
否
15°C
否
16°C
否
17°C
否
18°C
否
19°C或以上
否
11°C 100.0%
9°C或以下 <1%
10°C <1%
12°C <1%
$26,486 交易量
$26,486 交易量
2026-08-07
9°C或以下
$853 交易量
否
10°C
$967 交易量
否
11°C
$2,487 交易量
是
12°C
$2,980 交易量
否
13°C
$2,137 交易量
否
14°C
$4,021 交易量
否
15°C
$2,641 交易量
否
16°C
$3,363 交易量
否
17°C
$2,320 交易量
否
18°C
$2,903 交易量
否
19°C或以上
$1,813 交易量
否
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from Météo-France and ensemble runs point to Paris overnight lows stabilizing near 11°C on August 7 under clear to partly cloudy skies after a modest cooldown, which underpins the 99.5% market-implied odds for that exact minimum. This aligns with observational trends showing radiational cooling at urban stations amid light winds and moderate humidity, consistent with late-summer climatology where typical minima fall in the 14–17°C range. Traders assign negligible probability to 10°C or lower due to limited advection of cooler air masses. A realistic challenge could arise from localized microclimate effects at the official reporting station, a revised model consensus overnight, or unexpected cloud cover that reduces cooling rates before final dawn measurements.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 5, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$26,486結束日期
2026-08-07市場開放時間
Aug 5, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from Météo-France and ensemble runs point to Paris overnight lows stabilizing near 11°C on August 7 under clear to partly cloudy skies after a modest cooldown, which underpins the 99.5% market-implied odds for that exact minimum. This aligns with observational trends showing radiational cooling at urban stations amid light winds and moderate humidity, consistent with late-summer climatology where typical minima fall in the 14–17°C range. Traders assign negligible probability to 10°C or lower due to limited advection of cooler air masses. A realistic challenge could arise from localized microclimate effects at the official reporting station, a revised model consensus overnight, or unexpected cloud cover that reduces cooling rates before final dawn measurements.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$26,486結束日期
2026-08-07市場開放時間
Aug 5, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Recent forecast models from Météo-France and ensemble runs point to Paris overnight lows stabilizing near 11°C on August 7 under clear to partly cloudy skies after a modest cooldown, which underpins the 99.5% market-implied odds for that exact minimum. This aligns with observational trends showing radiational cooling at urban stations amid light winds and moderate humidity, consistent with late-summer climatology where typical minima fall in the 14–17°C range. Traders assign negligible probability to 10°C or lower due to limited advection of cooler air masses. A realistic challenge could arise from localized microclimate effects at the official reporting station, a revised model consensus overnight, or unexpected cloud cover that reduces cooling rates before final dawn measurements.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions