Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors zero magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes from April 13-19 (64% implied probability), driven by the complete absence of such events through April 16 per USGS seismic catalog data, consistent with global historical averages of roughly 0.4-0.5 M6.5+ quakes per week. This Poisson-distributed rarity stems from steady tectonic strain release worldwide, with no current seismic swarms, foreshock sequences, or anomalous strain accumulation reported by USGS monitoring networks in high-risk zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire. A M5.7 event in Nevada on April 14 underscores minor activity but falls well below the threshold. Probabilities taper sharply for higher counts due to low baseline rates; watch USGS real-time feeds for updates through April 19 UTC resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於How many 6.5 or above earthquakes April 13 - 19?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes April 13 - 19?
0 64%
1 26%
2 8%
3 2.7%
$29,451 交易量
$29,451 交易量
2026-04-19
0
64%
1
26%
2
8%
3
3%
4
1%
5
<1%
>5
<1%
0 64%
1 26%
2 8%
3 2.7%
$29,451 交易量
$29,451 交易量
2026-04-19
0
$9,748 交易量
64%
1
$6,860 交易量
26%
2
$3,690 交易量
8%
3
$1,414 交易量
3%
4
$2,602 交易量
1%
5
$2,139 交易量
<1%
>5
$2,997 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors zero magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes from April 13-19 (64% implied probability), driven by the complete absence of such events through April 16 per USGS seismic catalog data, consistent with global historical averages of roughly 0.4-0.5 M6.5+ quakes per week. This Poisson-distributed rarity stems from steady tectonic strain release worldwide, with no current seismic swarms, foreshock sequences, or anomalous strain accumulation reported by USGS monitoring networks in high-risk zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire. A M5.7 event in Nevada on April 14 underscores minor activity but falls well below the threshold. Probabilities taper sharply for higher counts due to low baseline rates; watch USGS real-time feeds for updates through April 19 UTC resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市場開放時間： Apr 10, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
交易量
$29,451結束日期
2026-04-19市場開放時間
Apr 10, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors zero magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes from April 13-19 (64% implied probability), driven by the complete absence of such events through April 16 per USGS seismic catalog data, consistent with global historical averages of roughly 0.4-0.5 M6.5+ quakes per week. This Poisson-distributed rarity stems from steady tectonic strain release worldwide, with no current seismic swarms, foreshock sequences, or anomalous strain accumulation reported by USGS monitoring networks in high-risk zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire. A M5.7 event in Nevada on April 14 underscores minor activity but falls well below the threshold. Probabilities taper sharply for higher counts due to low baseline rates; watch USGS real-time feeds for updates through April 19 UTC resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$29,451結束日期
2026-04-19市場開放時間
Apr 10, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors zero magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes from April 13-19 (64% implied probability), driven by the complete absence of such events through April 16 per USGS seismic catalog data, consistent with global historical averages of roughly 0.4-0.5 M6.5+ quakes per week. This Poisson-distributed rarity stems from steady tectonic strain release worldwide, with no current seismic swarms, foreshock sequences, or anomalous strain accumulation reported by USGS monitoring networks in high-risk zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire. A M5.7 event in Nevada on April 14 underscores minor activity but falls well below the threshold. Probabilities taper sharply for higher counts due to low baseline rates; watch USGS real-time feeds for updates through April 19 UTC resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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