Incumbent Republican Mary Miller secured her party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with over 73 percent of the vote in Illinois's 15th congressional district, facing Democrat Jennifer Todd in the November general election. The district's R+20 Cook Partisan Voting Index, rural character, and consistent Republican margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles underpin trader consensus around a 94.5 percent probability for the Republican Party. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal by Miller, or an unprecedented national Democratic surge could still narrow the gap, though no such factors have emerged in the current cycle.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$37,437 交易量
$37,437 交易量
2026-11-02
共和黨
95%
民主黨
6%
$37,437 交易量
$37,437 交易量
2026-11-02
共和黨
$19,364 交易量
95%
民主黨
$18,074 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mary Miller secured her party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with over 73 percent of the vote in Illinois's 15th congressional district, facing Democrat Jennifer Todd in the November general election. The district's R+20 Cook Partisan Voting Index, rural character, and consistent Republican margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles underpin trader consensus around a 94.5 percent probability for the Republican Party. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal by Miller, or an unprecedented national Democratic surge could still narrow the gap, though no such factors have emerged in the current cycle.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$37,437結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mary Miller secured her party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with over 73 percent of the vote in Illinois's 15th congressional district, facing Democrat Jennifer Todd in the November general election. The district's R+20 Cook Partisan Voting Index, rural character, and consistent Republican margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles underpin trader consensus around a 94.5 percent probability for the Republican Party. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal by Miller, or an unprecedented national Democratic surge could still narrow the gap, though no such factors have emerged in the current cycle.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$37,437結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETIncumbent Republican Mary Miller secured her party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with over 73 percent of the vote in Illinois's 15th congressional district, facing Democrat Jennifer Todd in the November general election. The district's R+20 Cook Partisan Voting Index, rural character, and consistent Republican margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles underpin trader consensus around a 94.5 percent probability for the Republican Party. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal by Miller, or an unprecedented national Democratic surge could still narrow the gap, though no such factors have emerged in the current cycle.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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