Nikki Budzinski’s strong incumbency in Illinois’s 13th congressional district underpins the Democratic Party’s dominant 94.5% implied probability in the House election market. The district, encompassing Springfield, Champaign-Urbana, Decatur, and parts of the Metro East, carries a D+5 Cook PVI and delivered consistent Democratic margins in recent cycles, including Budzinski’s 58% win in 2024. She easily secured the March 2026 Democratic primary, while Republican nominee Jeff Wilson emerged from a low-profile contest with limited fundraising. Forecasters across outlets rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the structural advantage. A major national Republican wave, significant scandal, or health event affecting the incumbent could narrow the gap, though no such catalysts have materialized ahead of the November 3 general election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$14,873 交易量
$14,873 交易量
2026-11-02
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$14,873 交易量
$14,873 交易量
2026-11-02
Democratic Party
$8,108 交易量
95%
Republican Party
$6,766 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Nikki Budzinski’s strong incumbency in Illinois’s 13th congressional district underpins the Democratic Party’s dominant 94.5% implied probability in the House election market. The district, encompassing Springfield, Champaign-Urbana, Decatur, and parts of the Metro East, carries a D+5 Cook PVI and delivered consistent Democratic margins in recent cycles, including Budzinski’s 58% win in 2024. She easily secured the March 2026 Democratic primary, while Republican nominee Jeff Wilson emerged from a low-profile contest with limited fundraising. Forecasters across outlets rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the structural advantage. A major national Republican wave, significant scandal, or health event affecting the incumbent could narrow the gap, though no such catalysts have materialized ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$14,873結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Nikki Budzinski’s strong incumbency in Illinois’s 13th congressional district underpins the Democratic Party’s dominant 94.5% implied probability in the House election market. The district, encompassing Springfield, Champaign-Urbana, Decatur, and parts of the Metro East, carries a D+5 Cook PVI and delivered consistent Democratic margins in recent cycles, including Budzinski’s 58% win in 2024. She easily secured the March 2026 Democratic primary, while Republican nominee Jeff Wilson emerged from a low-profile contest with limited fundraising. Forecasters across outlets rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the structural advantage. A major national Republican wave, significant scandal, or health event affecting the incumbent could narrow the gap, though no such catalysts have materialized ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$14,873結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETNikki Budzinski’s strong incumbency in Illinois’s 13th congressional district underpins the Democratic Party’s dominant 94.5% implied probability in the House election market. The district, encompassing Springfield, Champaign-Urbana, Decatur, and parts of the Metro East, carries a D+5 Cook PVI and delivered consistent Democratic margins in recent cycles, including Budzinski’s 58% win in 2024. She easily secured the March 2026 Democratic primary, while Republican nominee Jeff Wilson emerged from a low-profile contest with limited fundraising. Forecasters across outlets rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the structural advantage. A major national Republican wave, significant scandal, or health event affecting the incumbent could narrow the gap, though no such catalysts have materialized ahead of the November 3 general election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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