Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, trapping much of Iran's approximately 440 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium and halting verifiable enrichment activities. IAEA reports through September 2026 confirm persistent lack of inspector access to these locations, preventing confirmation of stockpile status or any restart of sensitive work, while an interim June 2026 memorandum of understanding for IAEA-supervised down-blending collapsed within weeks. Traders assign 95.1 percent probability to no nuclear test before 2027, reflecting the time required to restore operational capacity amid ongoing sanctions and monitoring gaps. A rapid, undetected breakout or shift in Iranian leadership priorities could still alter this trajectory before the deadline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
5% 機率
$263,060 交易量
$263,060 交易量
2026-12-31
是
5% 機率
$263,060 交易量
$263,060 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, trapping much of Iran's approximately 440 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium and halting verifiable enrichment activities. IAEA reports through September 2026 confirm persistent lack of inspector access to these locations, preventing confirmation of stockpile status or any restart of sensitive work, while an interim June 2026 memorandum of understanding for IAEA-supervised down-blending collapsed within weeks. Traders assign 95.1 percent probability to no nuclear test before 2027, reflecting the time required to restore operational capacity amid ongoing sanctions and monitoring gaps. A rapid, undetected breakout or shift in Iranian leadership priorities could still alter this trajectory before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
交易量
$263,060結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, trapping much of Iran's approximately 440 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium and halting verifiable enrichment activities. IAEA reports through September 2026 confirm persistent lack of inspector access to these locations, preventing confirmation of stockpile status or any restart of sensitive work, while an interim June 2026 memorandum of understanding for IAEA-supervised down-blending collapsed within weeks. Traders assign 95.1 percent probability to no nuclear test before 2027, reflecting the time required to restore operational capacity amid ongoing sanctions and monitoring gaps. A rapid, undetected breakout or shift in Iranian leadership priorities could still alter this trajectory before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$0結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETRecent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, trapping much of Iran's approximately 440 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium and halting verifiable enrichment activities. IAEA reports through September 2026 confirm persistent lack of inspector access to these locations, preventing confirmation of stockpile status or any restart of sensitive work, while an interim June 2026 memorandum of understanding for IAEA-supervised down-blending collapsed within weeks. Traders assign 95.1 percent probability to no nuclear test before 2027, reflecting the time required to restore operational capacity amid ongoing sanctions and monitoring gaps. A rapid, undetected breakout or shift in Iranian leadership priorities could still alter this trajectory before the deadline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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警惕外部連結哦。
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