Israeli airspace has faced repeated temporary closures or severe restrictions in 2026 amid direct and proxy missile and drone threats tied to the Iran conflict and its aftermath. Strikes by Israel and the US on Iranian targets triggered retaliatory barrages, prompting safety-driven shutdowns at Ben Gurion and across the Tel Aviv FIR, with similar measures in neighboring Jordan and parts of the Gulf. As of mid-September 2026, the airspace remains open under controlled restrictions following a fragile ceasefire, though EASA and national regulators maintain elevated risk notes through September due to Hezbollah activity in Lebanon, Houthi capabilities, and renewed Iran-linked tensions near the Strait of Hormuz. Trader focus centers on escalation triggers—such as proxy attacks or Iranian responses—that historically force short-notice closures, versus de-escalation signals that have allowed partial reopenings and airline resumptions planned for late October. Ongoing volatility from these actors keeps resolution timing uncertain.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於最新
$13,028 交易量
2026-09-30
9月30日
6%
10月31日
14%
12月31日
25%
$13,028 交易量
9月30日
$5,097 交易量
6%
10月31日
$2,198 交易量
14%
12月31日
$5,732 交易量
25%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli Airspace (The Tel Aviv Flight Information Region (FIR)/LLLL) is closed between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying closure occurs when the aviation or governmental authority responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region issues a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM), or other official order under the regulations of the jurisdiction responsible for that airspace region, which generally cancels or suspends commercial aviation across the specified airspace region, and such closure is not excluded under the exclusions provision below. A qualifying closure must apply generally to commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from the specified airspace region. A closure is not disqualified because the order permits limited exceptions, including humanitarian, medical, repatriation, or emergency flights, or select flights authorized by the responsible authority, provided that commercial flights are prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions.
The following are not qualifying closures: (i) closures due to weather, including volcanic and seismic activity; (ii) closures for holidays or religious observances; (iii) closures planned or announced before Contract Issuance; (iv) closures occurring on a regular cadence whose occurrence was determined before Contract Issuance, even if not announced; (v) closures resulting from the failure or malfunction of air traffic control, navigation, communications, power, or other technical systems; (vi) restrictions applying to aircraft by nationality, state of registry, operator, or ownership rather than to commercial traffic generally; (vii) closures of a subset of the specified airspace region, including geographic sectors and altitude bands; (viii) ground stops, flow restrictions, capacity reductions, or other air traffic management measures that delay or restrict traffic without closing the specified airspace region to commercial aviation; and (ix) warnings, no-fly zones, flight suspensions, or other restrictions imposed by any party other than the aviation or governmental authorities responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region.
A qualifying closure is deemed to occur at the time the closure takes effect, regardless of when the closure is announced or the order is issued. Where no effective time is included in the order, the closure is deemed to take effect at the time the order is issued.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Israeli government, including the Ministry of Transport, the Civil Aviation Authority, and the Israel Airports Authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.Israeli airspace has faced repeated temporary closures or severe restrictions in 2026 amid direct and proxy missile and drone threats tied to the Iran conflict and its aftermath. Strikes by Israel and the US on Iranian targets triggered retaliatory barrages, prompting safety-driven shutdowns at Ben Gurion and across the Tel Aviv FIR, with similar measures in neighboring Jordan and parts of the Gulf. As of mid-September 2026, the airspace remains open under controlled restrictions following a fragile ceasefire, though EASA and national regulators maintain elevated risk notes through September due to Hezbollah activity in Lebanon, Houthi capabilities, and renewed Iran-linked tensions near the Strait of Hormuz. Trader focus centers on escalation triggers—such as proxy attacks or Iranian responses—that historically force short-notice closures, versus de-escalation signals that have allowed partial reopenings and airline resumptions planned for late October. Ongoing volatility from these actors keeps resolution timing uncertain.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli Airspace (The Tel Aviv Flight Information Region (FIR)/LLLL) is closed between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying closure occurs when the aviation or governmental authority responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region issues a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM), or other official order under the regulations of the jurisdiction responsible for that airspace region, which generally cancels or suspends commercial aviation across the specified airspace region, and such closure is not excluded under the exclusions provision below. A qualifying closure must apply generally to commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from the specified airspace region. A closure is not disqualified because the order permits limited exceptions, including humanitarian, medical, repatriation, or emergency flights, or select flights authorized by the responsible authority, provided that commercial flights are prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions.
The following are not qualifying closures: (i) closures due to weather, including volcanic and seismic activity; (ii) closures for holidays or religious observances; (iii) closures planned or announced before Contract Issuance; (iv) closures occurring on a regular cadence whose occurrence was determined before Contract Issuance, even if not announced; (v) closures resulting from the failure or malfunction of air traffic control, navigation, communications, power, or other technical systems; (vi) restrictions applying to aircraft by nationality, state of registry, operator, or ownership rather than to commercial traffic generally; (vii) closures of a subset of the specified airspace region, including geographic sectors and altitude bands; (viii) ground stops, flow restrictions, capacity reductions, or other air traffic management measures that delay or restrict traffic without closing the specified airspace region to commercial aviation; and (ix) warnings, no-fly zones, flight suspensions, or other restrictions imposed by any party other than the aviation or governmental authorities responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region.
A qualifying closure is deemed to occur at the time the closure takes effect, regardless of when the closure is announced or the order is issued. Where no effective time is included in the order, the closure is deemed to take effect at the time the order is issued.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Israeli government, including the Ministry of Transport, the Civil Aviation Authority, and the Israel Airports Authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying closure occurs when the aviation or governmental authority responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region issues a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM), or other official order under the regulations of the jurisdiction responsible for that airspace region, which generally cancels or suspends commercial aviation across the specified airspace region, and such closure is not excluded under the exclusions provision below. A qualifying closure must apply generally to commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from the specified airspace region. A closure is not disqualified because the order permits limited exceptions, including humanitarian, medical, repatriation, or emergency flights, or select flights authorized by the responsible authority, provided that commercial flights are prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions.
The following are not qualifying closures: (i) closures due to weather, including volcanic and seismic activity; (ii) closures for holidays or religious observances; (iii) closures planned or announced before Contract Issuance; (iv) closures occurring on a regular cadence whose occurrence was determined before Contract Issuance, even if not announced; (v) closures resulting from the failure or malfunction of air traffic control, navigation, communications, power, or other technical systems; (vi) restrictions applying to aircraft by nationality, state of registry, operator, or ownership rather than to commercial traffic generally; (vii) closures of a subset of the specified airspace region, including geographic sectors and altitude bands; (viii) ground stops, flow restrictions, capacity reductions, or other air traffic management measures that delay or restrict traffic without closing the specified airspace region to commercial aviation; and (ix) warnings, no-fly zones, flight suspensions, or other restrictions imposed by any party other than the aviation or governmental authorities responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region.
A qualifying closure is deemed to occur at the time the closure takes effect, regardless of when the closure is announced or the order is issued. Where no effective time is included in the order, the closure is deemed to take effect at the time the order is issued.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Israeli government, including the Ministry of Transport, the Civil Aviation Authority, and the Israel Airports Authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Sep 15, 2026, 5:29 PM ET
交易量
$13,028結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Sep 15, 2026, 5:29 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli Airspace (The Tel Aviv Flight Information Region (FIR)/LLLL) is closed between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying closure occurs when the aviation or governmental authority responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region issues a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM), or other official order under the regulations of the jurisdiction responsible for that airspace region, which generally cancels or suspends commercial aviation across the specified airspace region, and such closure is not excluded under the exclusions provision below. A qualifying closure must apply generally to commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from the specified airspace region. A closure is not disqualified because the order permits limited exceptions, including humanitarian, medical, repatriation, or emergency flights, or select flights authorized by the responsible authority, provided that commercial flights are prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions.
The following are not qualifying closures: (i) closures due to weather, including volcanic and seismic activity; (ii) closures for holidays or religious observances; (iii) closures planned or announced before Contract Issuance; (iv) closures occurring on a regular cadence whose occurrence was determined before Contract Issuance, even if not announced; (v) closures resulting from the failure or malfunction of air traffic control, navigation, communications, power, or other technical systems; (vi) restrictions applying to aircraft by nationality, state of registry, operator, or ownership rather than to commercial traffic generally; (vii) closures of a subset of the specified airspace region, including geographic sectors and altitude bands; (viii) ground stops, flow restrictions, capacity reductions, or other air traffic management measures that delay or restrict traffic without closing the specified airspace region to commercial aviation; and (ix) warnings, no-fly zones, flight suspensions, or other restrictions imposed by any party other than the aviation or governmental authorities responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region.
A qualifying closure is deemed to occur at the time the closure takes effect, regardless of when the closure is announced or the order is issued. Where no effective time is included in the order, the closure is deemed to take effect at the time the order is issued.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Israeli government, including the Ministry of Transport, the Civil Aviation Authority, and the Israel Airports Authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.Israeli airspace has faced repeated temporary closures or severe restrictions in 2026 amid direct and proxy missile and drone threats tied to the Iran conflict and its aftermath. Strikes by Israel and the US on Iranian targets triggered retaliatory barrages, prompting safety-driven shutdowns at Ben Gurion and across the Tel Aviv FIR, with similar measures in neighboring Jordan and parts of the Gulf. As of mid-September 2026, the airspace remains open under controlled restrictions following a fragile ceasefire, though EASA and national regulators maintain elevated risk notes through September due to Hezbollah activity in Lebanon, Houthi capabilities, and renewed Iran-linked tensions near the Strait of Hormuz. Trader focus centers on escalation triggers—such as proxy attacks or Iranian responses—that historically force short-notice closures, versus de-escalation signals that have allowed partial reopenings and airline resumptions planned for late October. Ongoing volatility from these actors keeps resolution timing uncertain.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli Airspace (The Tel Aviv Flight Information Region (FIR)/LLLL) is closed between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying closure occurs when the aviation or governmental authority responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region issues a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM), or other official order under the regulations of the jurisdiction responsible for that airspace region, which generally cancels or suspends commercial aviation across the specified airspace region, and such closure is not excluded under the exclusions provision below. A qualifying closure must apply generally to commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from the specified airspace region. A closure is not disqualified because the order permits limited exceptions, including humanitarian, medical, repatriation, or emergency flights, or select flights authorized by the responsible authority, provided that commercial flights are prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions.
The following are not qualifying closures: (i) closures due to weather, including volcanic and seismic activity; (ii) closures for holidays or religious observances; (iii) closures planned or announced before Contract Issuance; (iv) closures occurring on a regular cadence whose occurrence was determined before Contract Issuance, even if not announced; (v) closures resulting from the failure or malfunction of air traffic control, navigation, communications, power, or other technical systems; (vi) restrictions applying to aircraft by nationality, state of registry, operator, or ownership rather than to commercial traffic generally; (vii) closures of a subset of the specified airspace region, including geographic sectors and altitude bands; (viii) ground stops, flow restrictions, capacity reductions, or other air traffic management measures that delay or restrict traffic without closing the specified airspace region to commercial aviation; and (ix) warnings, no-fly zones, flight suspensions, or other restrictions imposed by any party other than the aviation or governmental authorities responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region.
A qualifying closure is deemed to occur at the time the closure takes effect, regardless of when the closure is announced or the order is issued. Where no effective time is included in the order, the closure is deemed to take effect at the time the order is issued.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Israeli government, including the Ministry of Transport, the Civil Aviation Authority, and the Israel Airports Authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying closure occurs when the aviation or governmental authority responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region issues a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM), or other official order under the regulations of the jurisdiction responsible for that airspace region, which generally cancels or suspends commercial aviation across the specified airspace region, and such closure is not excluded under the exclusions provision below. A qualifying closure must apply generally to commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from the specified airspace region. A closure is not disqualified because the order permits limited exceptions, including humanitarian, medical, repatriation, or emergency flights, or select flights authorized by the responsible authority, provided that commercial flights are prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions.
The following are not qualifying closures: (i) closures due to weather, including volcanic and seismic activity; (ii) closures for holidays or religious observances; (iii) closures planned or announced before Contract Issuance; (iv) closures occurring on a regular cadence whose occurrence was determined before Contract Issuance, even if not announced; (v) closures resulting from the failure or malfunction of air traffic control, navigation, communications, power, or other technical systems; (vi) restrictions applying to aircraft by nationality, state of registry, operator, or ownership rather than to commercial traffic generally; (vii) closures of a subset of the specified airspace region, including geographic sectors and altitude bands; (viii) ground stops, flow restrictions, capacity reductions, or other air traffic management measures that delay or restrict traffic without closing the specified airspace region to commercial aviation; and (ix) warnings, no-fly zones, flight suspensions, or other restrictions imposed by any party other than the aviation or governmental authorities responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region.
A qualifying closure is deemed to occur at the time the closure takes effect, regardless of when the closure is announced or the order is issued. Where no effective time is included in the order, the closure is deemed to take effect at the time the order is issued.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Israeli government, including the Ministry of Transport, the Civil Aviation Authority, and the Israel Airports Authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$13,028結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Sep 15, 2026, 5:29 PM ETIsraeli airspace has faced repeated temporary closures or severe restrictions in 2026 amid direct and proxy missile and drone threats tied to the Iran conflict and its aftermath. Strikes by Israel and the US on Iranian targets triggered retaliatory barrages, prompting safety-driven shutdowns at Ben Gurion and across the Tel Aviv FIR, with similar measures in neighboring Jordan and parts of the Gulf. As of mid-September 2026, the airspace remains open under controlled restrictions following a fragile ceasefire, though EASA and national regulators maintain elevated risk notes through September due to Hezbollah activity in Lebanon, Houthi capabilities, and renewed Iran-linked tensions near the Strait of Hormuz. Trader focus centers on escalation triggers—such as proxy attacks or Iranian responses—that historically force short-notice closures, versus de-escalation signals that have allowed partial reopenings and airline resumptions planned for late October. Ongoing volatility from these actors keeps resolution timing uncertain.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions