Traders see a 96.5% probability that NATO will not dissolve before 2027, driven by the alliance's durable treaty framework, shared security interests among its 32 members, and consistent affirmation of Article 5 commitments at recent summits. Ongoing support for Ukraine and incremental expansions have reinforced institutional cohesion without credible signals of mass withdrawal from key capitals. This consensus reflects historical precedent of alliance durability under comparable pressures and the absence of near-term catalysts such as formal exit announcements or fundamental treaty revisions. Realistic factors that could still alter outcomes include abrupt shifts in U.S. executive policy, coordinated European alternative security arrangements, or major diplomatic realignments with Russia or China that prompt rapid reevaluation within the resolution window.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
5% 機率
$122,876 交易量
$122,876 交易量
2026-12-31
是
5% 機率
$122,876 交易量
$122,876 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders see a 96.5% probability that NATO will not dissolve before 2027, driven by the alliance's durable treaty framework, shared security interests among its 32 members, and consistent affirmation of Article 5 commitments at recent summits. Ongoing support for Ukraine and incremental expansions have reinforced institutional cohesion without credible signals of mass withdrawal from key capitals. This consensus reflects historical precedent of alliance durability under comparable pressures and the absence of near-term catalysts such as formal exit announcements or fundamental treaty revisions. Realistic factors that could still alter outcomes include abrupt shifts in U.S. executive policy, coordinated European alternative security arrangements, or major diplomatic realignments with Russia or China that prompt rapid reevaluation within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
交易量
$122,876結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders see a 96.5% probability that NATO will not dissolve before 2027, driven by the alliance's durable treaty framework, shared security interests among its 32 members, and consistent affirmation of Article 5 commitments at recent summits. Ongoing support for Ukraine and incremental expansions have reinforced institutional cohesion without credible signals of mass withdrawal from key capitals. This consensus reflects historical precedent of alliance durability under comparable pressures and the absence of near-term catalysts such as formal exit announcements or fundamental treaty revisions. Realistic factors that could still alter outcomes include abrupt shifts in U.S. executive policy, coordinated European alternative security arrangements, or major diplomatic realignments with Russia or China that prompt rapid reevaluation within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$122,876結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders see a 96.5% probability that NATO will not dissolve before 2027, driven by the alliance's durable treaty framework, shared security interests among its 32 members, and consistent affirmation of Article 5 commitments at recent summits. Ongoing support for Ukraine and incremental expansions have reinforced institutional cohesion without credible signals of mass withdrawal from key capitals. This consensus reflects historical precedent of alliance durability under comparable pressures and the absence of near-term catalysts such as formal exit announcements or fundamental treaty revisions. Realistic factors that could still alter outcomes include abrupt shifts in U.S. executive policy, coordinated European alternative security arrangements, or major diplomatic realignments with Russia or China that prompt rapid reevaluation within the resolution window.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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