Institutional safeguards, including the absence of any formal dissolution procedure and the requirement for coordinated action by a majority of member states or unanimous treaty repeal, underpin trader consensus that the EU will remain intact through December 2026. Recent developments, such as the European Commission president's September 2026 State of the Union address emphasizing resilience, new partnerships, and collective responses to external pressures, reinforce ongoing institutional cohesion. Economic integration via the single market and eurozone further raises exit costs for members. Low-probability shifts could still emerge from synchronized sovereign debt crises or major geopolitical escalations prompting realignment, though no such triggers appear active in the narrow resolution window.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於歐盟在2027年之前解體？
歐盟在2027年之前解體？
是
1% 機率
$180,680 交易量
$180,680 交易量
2026-12-31
是
1% 機率
$180,680 交易量
$180,680 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Institutional safeguards, including the absence of any formal dissolution procedure and the requirement for coordinated action by a majority of member states or unanimous treaty repeal, underpin trader consensus that the EU will remain intact through December 2026. Recent developments, such as the European Commission president's September 2026 State of the Union address emphasizing resilience, new partnerships, and collective responses to external pressures, reinforce ongoing institutional cohesion. Economic integration via the single market and eurozone further raises exit costs for members. Low-probability shifts could still emerge from synchronized sovereign debt crises or major geopolitical escalations prompting realignment, though no such triggers appear active in the narrow resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ET
交易量
$180,680結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Institutional safeguards, including the absence of any formal dissolution procedure and the requirement for coordinated action by a majority of member states or unanimous treaty repeal, underpin trader consensus that the EU will remain intact through December 2026. Recent developments, such as the European Commission president's September 2026 State of the Union address emphasizing resilience, new partnerships, and collective responses to external pressures, reinforce ongoing institutional cohesion. Economic integration via the single market and eurozone further raises exit costs for members. Low-probability shifts could still emerge from synchronized sovereign debt crises or major geopolitical escalations prompting realignment, though no such triggers appear active in the narrow resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$180,680結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETInstitutional safeguards, including the absence of any formal dissolution procedure and the requirement for coordinated action by a majority of member states or unanimous treaty repeal, underpin trader consensus that the EU will remain intact through December 2026. Recent developments, such as the European Commission president's September 2026 State of the Union address emphasizing resilience, new partnerships, and collective responses to external pressures, reinforce ongoing institutional cohesion. Economic integration via the single market and eurozone further raises exit costs for members. Low-probability shifts could still emerge from synchronized sovereign debt crises or major geopolitical escalations prompting realignment, though no such triggers appear active in the narrow resolution window.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions