Traders see a 96.8% probability that the EU will not dissolve before 2027 because the union rests on binding treaties that demand unanimous member consent for exit or dissolution and because its single market, common institutions, and shared regulatory framework create high economic costs for breakup. No major member state has advanced dissolution proposals or triggered treaty-exit procedures in recent months, and ongoing cooperation on trade, energy, and security continues without signs of coordinated fragmentation. While a cascade of national referendums, simultaneous debt crises, or external shocks could still alter this trajectory within the short window, current political and institutional conditions offer little basis for rapid reversal.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於歐盟在2027年之前解體？
歐盟在2027年之前解體？
是
$172,632 交易量
$172,632 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$172,632 交易量
$172,632 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders see a 96.8% probability that the EU will not dissolve before 2027 because the union rests on binding treaties that demand unanimous member consent for exit or dissolution and because its single market, common institutions, and shared regulatory framework create high economic costs for breakup. No major member state has advanced dissolution proposals or triggered treaty-exit procedures in recent months, and ongoing cooperation on trade, energy, and security continues without signs of coordinated fragmentation. While a cascade of national referendums, simultaneous debt crises, or external shocks could still alter this trajectory within the short window, current political and institutional conditions offer little basis for rapid reversal.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ET
交易量
$172,632結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders see a 96.8% probability that the EU will not dissolve before 2027 because the union rests on binding treaties that demand unanimous member consent for exit or dissolution and because its single market, common institutions, and shared regulatory framework create high economic costs for breakup. No major member state has advanced dissolution proposals or triggered treaty-exit procedures in recent months, and ongoing cooperation on trade, energy, and security continues without signs of coordinated fragmentation. While a cascade of national referendums, simultaneous debt crises, or external shocks could still alter this trajectory within the short window, current political and institutional conditions offer little basis for rapid reversal.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$172,632結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders see a 96.8% probability that the EU will not dissolve before 2027 because the union rests on binding treaties that demand unanimous member consent for exit or dissolution and because its single market, common institutions, and shared regulatory framework create high economic costs for breakup. No major member state has advanced dissolution proposals or triggered treaty-exit procedures in recent months, and ongoing cooperation on trade, energy, and security continues without signs of coordinated fragmentation. While a cascade of national referendums, simultaneous debt crises, or external shocks could still alter this trajectory within the short window, current political and institutional conditions offer little basis for rapid reversal.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions