Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 96.2% for EU dissolution before 2027, reflecting the European Union's entrenched institutional stability and high legal barriers under its treaties, which require unanimous member state agreement for any breakup—a threshold unmet since Brexit. No member state has invoked Article 50 withdrawal in recent years, and ongoing integration efforts, including the European Commission's recent roadmap for a unified single market by end-2027 and reinforcements to the EU Emissions Trading System's Market Stability Reserve, underscore continuity amid economic and geopolitical pressures. While improbable, a cascade of national referendums triggered by severe debt crises, election upheavals in France or Germany, or escalated external conflicts like Ukraine could theoretically shift dynamics before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於歐盟在2027年之前解體？
歐盟在2027年之前解體？
是
$162,426 交易量
$162,426 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$162,426 交易量
$162,426 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 96.2% for EU dissolution before 2027, reflecting the European Union's entrenched institutional stability and high legal barriers under its treaties, which require unanimous member state agreement for any breakup—a threshold unmet since Brexit. No member state has invoked Article 50 withdrawal in recent years, and ongoing integration efforts, including the European Commission's recent roadmap for a unified single market by end-2027 and reinforcements to the EU Emissions Trading System's Market Stability Reserve, underscore continuity amid economic and geopolitical pressures. While improbable, a cascade of national referendums triggered by severe debt crises, election upheavals in France or Germany, or escalated external conflicts like Ukraine could theoretically shift dynamics before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ET
交易量
$162,426結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 96.2% for EU dissolution before 2027, reflecting the European Union's entrenched institutional stability and high legal barriers under its treaties, which require unanimous member state agreement for any breakup—a threshold unmet since Brexit. No member state has invoked Article 50 withdrawal in recent years, and ongoing integration efforts, including the European Commission's recent roadmap for a unified single market by end-2027 and reinforcements to the EU Emissions Trading System's Market Stability Reserve, underscore continuity amid economic and geopolitical pressures. While improbable, a cascade of national referendums triggered by severe debt crises, election upheavals in France or Germany, or escalated external conflicts like Ukraine could theoretically shift dynamics before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$162,426結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 96.2% for EU dissolution before 2027, reflecting the European Union's entrenched institutional stability and high legal barriers under its treaties, which require unanimous member state agreement for any breakup—a threshold unmet since Brexit. No member state has invoked Article 50 withdrawal in recent years, and ongoing integration efforts, including the European Commission's recent roadmap for a unified single market by end-2027 and reinforcements to the EU Emissions Trading System's Market Stability Reserve, underscore continuity amid economic and geopolitical pressures. While improbable, a cascade of national referendums triggered by severe debt crises, election upheavals in France or Germany, or escalated external conflicts like Ukraine could theoretically shift dynamics before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions