Democrat Jamie Ager holds a 63.5% implied probability in the NC-11 House race, ahead of Republican Jennifer Balkcom at 36.5%, reflecting trader assessment of campaign resources and timing after incumbent Chuck Edwards withdrew in early August 2026 following a House Ethics Committee report and subsequent censure. Ager, a fourth-generation farmer with established name recognition and over $2 million cash on hand, maintained an active campaign focused on Helene recovery and affordability, while Balkcom, selected by district Republicans on August 10 and endorsed by President Trump, entered with limited prior statewide visibility and began airing her first ad only in mid-September. The late nominee switch compressed Balkcom’s window to consolidate support in a district rated Lean Republican by multiple forecasters, though NRCC inclusion in its MAGA Majority program and her state legislative record provide counter-momentum ahead of the November 3 general election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$15,862 交易量
$15,862 交易量
2026-11-03
Jamie Ager（民主黨）
63%
珍妮佛·巴爾克姆（共和黨）
37%
$15,862 交易量
$15,862 交易量
2026-11-03
Jamie Ager（民主黨）
$7,358 交易量
63%
珍妮佛·巴爾克姆（共和黨）
$8,504 交易量
37%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democrat Jamie Ager holds a 63.5% implied probability in the NC-11 House race, ahead of Republican Jennifer Balkcom at 36.5%, reflecting trader assessment of campaign resources and timing after incumbent Chuck Edwards withdrew in early August 2026 following a House Ethics Committee report and subsequent censure. Ager, a fourth-generation farmer with established name recognition and over $2 million cash on hand, maintained an active campaign focused on Helene recovery and affordability, while Balkcom, selected by district Republicans on August 10 and endorsed by President Trump, entered with limited prior statewide visibility and began airing her first ad only in mid-September. The late nominee switch compressed Balkcom’s window to consolidate support in a district rated Lean Republican by multiple forecasters, though NRCC inclusion in its MAGA Majority program and her state legislative record provide counter-momentum ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET
交易量
$15,862結束日期
2026-11-04市場開放時間
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democrat Jamie Ager holds a 63.5% implied probability in the NC-11 House race, ahead of Republican Jennifer Balkcom at 36.5%, reflecting trader assessment of campaign resources and timing after incumbent Chuck Edwards withdrew in early August 2026 following a House Ethics Committee report and subsequent censure. Ager, a fourth-generation farmer with established name recognition and over $2 million cash on hand, maintained an active campaign focused on Helene recovery and affordability, while Balkcom, selected by district Republicans on August 10 and endorsed by President Trump, entered with limited prior statewide visibility and began airing her first ad only in mid-September. The late nominee switch compressed Balkcom’s window to consolidate support in a district rated Lean Republican by multiple forecasters, though NRCC inclusion in its MAGA Majority program and her state legislative record provide counter-momentum ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$15,862結束日期
2026-11-04市場開放時間
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETDemocrat Jamie Ager holds a 63.5% implied probability in the NC-11 House race, ahead of Republican Jennifer Balkcom at 36.5%, reflecting trader assessment of campaign resources and timing after incumbent Chuck Edwards withdrew in early August 2026 following a House Ethics Committee report and subsequent censure. Ager, a fourth-generation farmer with established name recognition and over $2 million cash on hand, maintained an active campaign focused on Helene recovery and affordability, while Balkcom, selected by district Republicans on August 10 and endorsed by President Trump, entered with limited prior statewide visibility and began airing her first ad only in mid-September. The late nominee switch compressed Balkcom’s window to consolidate support in a district rated Lean Republican by multiple forecasters, though NRCC inclusion in its MAGA Majority program and her state legislative record provide counter-momentum ahead of the November 3 general election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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