Steven Horsford, the Democratic incumbent seeking a sixth term, holds an 89.5% implied probability in the NV-04 race due to the district’s consistent Democratic lean, including a 1.5-point margin for the Democratic presidential candidate in 2024, and a registration advantage of roughly 35,000 more Democrats than Republicans. Cody Whipple, who secured the Republican nomination in the June 2026 primary with 61.8% of the vote, trails at 9.5% amid a “Likely Democratic” rating from multiple forecasters. Horsford’s substantial fundraising edge—exceeding $2.5 million raised compared with Whipple’s roughly $750,000—further supports trader consensus on the outcome. The general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, with no major late-cycle developments reported that have altered the fundamentals.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於最新
最新
2026-11-03
史蒂文·霍斯福德（民主黨）
90%
Cody Whipple（共和黨）
10%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
史蒂文·霍斯福德（民主黨）
$3,047 交易量
90%
Cody Whipple（共和黨）
$4,604 交易量
10%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Steven Horsford, the Democratic incumbent seeking a sixth term, holds an 89.5% implied probability in the NV-04 race due to the district’s consistent Democratic lean, including a 1.5-point margin for the Democratic presidential candidate in 2024, and a registration advantage of roughly 35,000 more Democrats than Republicans. Cody Whipple, who secured the Republican nomination in the June 2026 primary with 61.8% of the vote, trails at 9.5% amid a “Likely Democratic” rating from multiple forecasters. Horsford’s substantial fundraising edge—exceeding $2.5 million raised compared with Whipple’s roughly $750,000—further supports trader consensus on the outcome. The general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, with no major late-cycle developments reported that have altered the fundamentals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ET
交易量
$7,651結束日期
2026-11-04市場開放時間
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Steven Horsford, the Democratic incumbent seeking a sixth term, holds an 89.5% implied probability in the NV-04 race due to the district’s consistent Democratic lean, including a 1.5-point margin for the Democratic presidential candidate in 2024, and a registration advantage of roughly 35,000 more Democrats than Republicans. Cody Whipple, who secured the Republican nomination in the June 2026 primary with 61.8% of the vote, trails at 9.5% amid a “Likely Democratic” rating from multiple forecasters. Horsford’s substantial fundraising edge—exceeding $2.5 million raised compared with Whipple’s roughly $750,000—further supports trader consensus on the outcome. The general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, with no major late-cycle developments reported that have altered the fundamentals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$7,651結束日期
2026-11-04市場開放時間
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETSteven Horsford, the Democratic incumbent seeking a sixth term, holds an 89.5% implied probability in the NV-04 race due to the district’s consistent Democratic lean, including a 1.5-point margin for the Democratic presidential candidate in 2024, and a registration advantage of roughly 35,000 more Democrats than Republicans. Cody Whipple, who secured the Republican nomination in the June 2026 primary with 61.8% of the vote, trails at 9.5% amid a “Likely Democratic” rating from multiple forecasters. Horsford’s substantial fundraising edge—exceeding $2.5 million raised compared with Whipple’s roughly $750,000—further supports trader consensus on the outcome. The general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, with no major late-cycle developments reported that have altered the fundamentals.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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