Ukraine’s constitutional commitment to NATO membership, repeatedly reaffirmed by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and senior officials, remains the central driver behind the 93.5% implied probability that Kyiv will not agree to forgo accession before 2027. NATO allies have sustained the “irreversible path” language through the June 2026 NATO-Ukraine Council meeting in Kyiv and ongoing military aid pledges extending into 2027, while Ukrainian diplomacy continues to frame membership as a core security guarantee. No recent diplomatic or legislative developments indicate willingness to adopt permanent neutrality or amend the constitutional goal. Trader consensus reflects the absence of credible signals that Ukraine would accept such a concession in the near term, though a comprehensive peace framework could still introduce new variables.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
7% 機率
$155,530 交易量
$155,530 交易量
2026-12-31
是
7% 機率
$155,530 交易量
$155,530 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine’s constitutional commitment to NATO membership, repeatedly reaffirmed by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and senior officials, remains the central driver behind the 93.5% implied probability that Kyiv will not agree to forgo accession before 2027. NATO allies have sustained the “irreversible path” language through the June 2026 NATO-Ukraine Council meeting in Kyiv and ongoing military aid pledges extending into 2027, while Ukrainian diplomacy continues to frame membership as a core security guarantee. No recent diplomatic or legislative developments indicate willingness to adopt permanent neutrality or amend the constitutional goal. Trader consensus reflects the absence of credible signals that Ukraine would accept such a concession in the near term, though a comprehensive peace framework could still introduce new variables.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
市場開放時間： Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ET
交易量
$155,530結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine’s constitutional commitment to NATO membership, repeatedly reaffirmed by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and senior officials, remains the central driver behind the 93.5% implied probability that Kyiv will not agree to forgo accession before 2027. NATO allies have sustained the “irreversible path” language through the June 2026 NATO-Ukraine Council meeting in Kyiv and ongoing military aid pledges extending into 2027, while Ukrainian diplomacy continues to frame membership as a core security guarantee. No recent diplomatic or legislative developments indicate willingness to adopt permanent neutrality or amend the constitutional goal. Trader consensus reflects the absence of credible signals that Ukraine would accept such a concession in the near term, though a comprehensive peace framework could still introduce new variables.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
交易量
$155,530結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ETUkraine’s constitutional commitment to NATO membership, repeatedly reaffirmed by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and senior officials, remains the central driver behind the 93.5% implied probability that Kyiv will not agree to forgo accession before 2027. NATO allies have sustained the “irreversible path” language through the June 2026 NATO-Ukraine Council meeting in Kyiv and ongoing military aid pledges extending into 2027, while Ukrainian diplomacy continues to frame membership as a core security guarantee. No recent diplomatic or legislative developments indicate willingness to adopt permanent neutrality or amend the constitutional goal. Trader consensus reflects the absence of credible signals that Ukraine would accept such a concession in the near term, though a comprehensive peace framework could still introduce new variables.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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Frequently Asked Questions