**NATO has invoked Article 5 only once in its history, after the 9/11 attacks, and current conditions show no signs of an imminent armed attack on alliance territory that would trigger collective defense before 2027.** Ongoing diplomacy, including U.S.-facilitated talks between Russia and Ukraine with a reported June 2026 deadline for a deal, combined with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte’s early June visit to Kyiv for the first NATO-Ukraine Council meeting on Ukrainian soil, underscores continued containment of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Recent Ukrainian drone strikes inside Russia and Russian air-defense responses have not produced cross-border incidents involving NATO members. Trader consensus at 92% for “No” reflects the high bar for invocation—requiring unanimous consensus on an armed attack—along with active deterrence measures, alliance cohesion, and the absence of escalatory events that would meet the threshold in the remaining months of 2026. Historical precedent and the focus on consultations under Article 4 rather than Article 5 further support this positioning.