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icon for 2027年之前的北約第5條？
政治·外交政策

2027年之前的北約第5條？

icon for 2027年之前的北約第5條？
政治·外交政策

2027年之前的北約第5條？

12月 31

12月 31

是

9% 機率
Polymarket

$90,955 交易量

是

9% 機率
Polymarket

$90,955 交易量

If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.**NATO has not faced a qualifying armed attack on member territory since 2001, keeping invocation of Article 5 unlikely through 2026.** Border incidents, including Russian drone incursions into Poland and airspace violations over Estonia in 2025, prompted Article 4 consultations and responses such as Operation Eastern Sentry for enhanced aerial defense rather than collective defense measures. A March 2026 Iranian ballistic missile directed toward Turkey was intercepted without triggering alliance-wide obligations, as NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte confirmed no consideration of Article 5. Ongoing Russia-Ukraine hostilities and Middle East tensions have been contained below the threshold for direct attacks on allies, while the 2025 Hague Summit reinforced deterrence through higher defense spending commitments and eastern flank deployments. Traders price the 91.5% “No” outcome on this pattern of calibrated responses and sustained deterrence.

If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.
交易量
$90,955
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 1:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.
If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.**NATO has not faced a qualifying armed attack on member territory since 2001, keeping invocation of Article 5 unlikely through 2026.** Border incidents, including Russian drone incursions into Poland and airspace violations over Estonia in 2025, prompted Article 4 consultations and responses such as Operation Eastern Sentry for enhanced aerial defense rather than collective defense measures. A March 2026 Iranian ballistic missile directed toward Turkey was intercepted without triggering alliance-wide obligations, as NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte confirmed no consideration of Article 5. Ongoing Russia-Ukraine hostilities and Middle East tensions have been contained below the threshold for direct attacks on allies, while the 2025 Hague Summit reinforced deterrence through higher defense spending commitments and eastern flank deployments. Traders price the 91.5% “No” outcome on this pattern of calibrated responses and sustained deterrence.

If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.
交易量
$90,955
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 1:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2027年之前的北約第5條？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2027年前啟動北約第五條？" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 9¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 9% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2027年之前的北約第5條？" has generated $91K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2027年之前的北約第5條？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "2027年之前的北約第5條？" is "2027年前啟動北約第五條？" at just 9%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "2027年之前的北約第5條？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.