Ongoing Russian military operations and the absence of allied consensus remain the dominant barriers to Ukraine’s NATO accession before 2027. At the July 2026 Ankara summit, allies committed €70 billion in military aid for 2026 and equivalent levels in 2027 while recognizing Ukraine as a security contributor, yet stopped short of extending an invitation or altering the requirement that all members agree and conditions—including interoperability and reforms—are met. Recent statements from Ukrainian officials and stalled trilateral peace talks underscore that full membership remains distant amid the active conflict. Traders price near-certainty on “No” because accession processes have historically taken years even in peacetime. A rapid ceasefire with credible security arrangements or unexpected shifts in key capitals could still reopen the path within the narrow window.