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世界·烏克蘭

烏克蘭在2027年之前加入北約嗎？

icon for 烏克蘭在2027年之前加入北約嗎？
世界·烏克蘭

烏克蘭在2027年之前加入北約嗎？

12月 31

12月 31

是

4% 機率
Polymarket

$1,238,691 交易量

是

4% 機率
Polymarket

$1,238,691 交易量

If Ukraine has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.NATO allies have repeatedly affirmed Ukraine’s long-term path to membership since the 2008 Bucharest summit and the 2023 Vilnius decision eliminating the Membership Action Plan requirement, yet accession remains conditional on unanimous agreement and unmet conditions. As of mid-2026, no invitation has been extended, with the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict creating Article 5 complications and key members, including the United States, signaling opposition. Ukrainian leadership signaled flexibility in late 2025 by offering to forgo NATO ambitions for alternative security guarantees during peace discussions. These barriers have produced the current trader consensus reflected in the 96% “No” probability. A rapid negotiated settlement combined with sudden allied consensus could theoretically accelerate timelines, though formal ratification by all members would still face procedural and political hurdles before 2027.

If Ukraine has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.
交易量
$1,238,691
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
If Ukraine has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.
If Ukraine has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.NATO allies have repeatedly affirmed Ukraine’s long-term path to membership since the 2008 Bucharest summit and the 2023 Vilnius decision eliminating the Membership Action Plan requirement, yet accession remains conditional on unanimous agreement and unmet conditions. As of mid-2026, no invitation has been extended, with the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict creating Article 5 complications and key members, including the United States, signaling opposition. Ukrainian leadership signaled flexibility in late 2025 by offering to forgo NATO ambitions for alternative security guarantees during peace discussions. These barriers have produced the current trader consensus reflected in the 96% “No” probability. A rapid negotiated settlement combined with sudden allied consensus could theoretically accelerate timelines, though formal ratification by all members would still face procedural and political hurdles before 2027.

If Ukraine has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.
交易量
$1,238,691
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
If Ukraine has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"烏克蘭在2027年之前加入北約嗎？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "烏克蘭會在2027年前加入北約嗎？" at 4%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 4¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 4% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "烏克蘭在2027年之前加入北約嗎？" has generated $1.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "烏克蘭在2027年之前加入北約嗎？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "烏克蘭在2027年之前加入北約嗎？" is "烏克蘭會在2027年前加入北約嗎？" at just 4%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "烏克蘭在2027年之前加入北約嗎？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.