The CDU/CSU–SPD grand coalition, formed after the February 2025 federal election and sworn in under Chancellor Friedrich Merz in spring 2025, has maintained internal cohesion through mid-2026 despite economic pressures and regional election setbacks for the SPD. Recent July 2026 agreements on tax, labor, and pension reforms underscore ongoing policy coordination, while both parties share incentives to demonstrate governing competence ahead of future votes. Historical precedent shows such coalitions often complete full terms, and no procedural crises, major defections, or irreconcilable disputes have emerged to threaten early dissolution before the 2027 horizon. Trader consensus at 85.5% for stability reflects this continuity in Bundestag arithmetic and party discipline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$70,524 交易量
$70,524 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$70,524 交易量
$70,524 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.The CDU/CSU–SPD grand coalition, formed after the February 2025 federal election and sworn in under Chancellor Friedrich Merz in spring 2025, has maintained internal cohesion through mid-2026 despite economic pressures and regional election setbacks for the SPD. Recent July 2026 agreements on tax, labor, and pension reforms underscore ongoing policy coordination, while both parties share incentives to demonstrate governing competence ahead of future votes. Historical precedent shows such coalitions often complete full terms, and no procedural crises, major defections, or irreconcilable disputes have emerged to threaten early dissolution before the 2027 horizon. Trader consensus at 85.5% for stability reflects this continuity in Bundestag arithmetic and party discipline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.
市場開放時間： Dec 3, 2025, 12:16 PM ET
交易量
$70,524結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 3, 2025, 12:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.The CDU/CSU–SPD grand coalition, formed after the February 2025 federal election and sworn in under Chancellor Friedrich Merz in spring 2025, has maintained internal cohesion through mid-2026 despite economic pressures and regional election setbacks for the SPD. Recent July 2026 agreements on tax, labor, and pension reforms underscore ongoing policy coordination, while both parties share incentives to demonstrate governing competence ahead of future votes. Historical precedent shows such coalitions often complete full terms, and no procedural crises, major defections, or irreconcilable disputes have emerged to threaten early dissolution before the 2027 horizon. Trader consensus at 85.5% for stability reflects this continuity in Bundestag arithmetic and party discipline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.
交易量
$70,524結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 3, 2025, 12:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The CDU/CSU–SPD grand coalition, formed after the February 2025 federal election and sworn in under Chancellor Friedrich Merz in spring 2025, has maintained internal cohesion through mid-2026 despite economic pressures and regional election setbacks for the SPD. Recent July 2026 agreements on tax, labor, and pension reforms underscore ongoing policy coordination, while both parties share incentives to demonstrate governing competence ahead of future votes. Historical precedent shows such coalitions often complete full terms, and no procedural crises, major defections, or irreconcilable disputes have emerged to threaten early dissolution before the 2027 horizon. Trader consensus at 85.5% for stability reflects this continuity in Bundestag arithmetic and party discipline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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