The CDU/CSU–SPD grand coalition, formed in May 2025 under Chancellor Friedrich Merz following the February snap election, has advanced shared priorities including budget measures, tax and labor reforms, and EU-related initiatives without major parliamentary defeats or no-confidence motions through mid-2026. Both parties face strong incentives to sustain the arrangement, given the AfD’s polling strength and the absence of viable alternative majorities that avoid far-right support. Recent agreements on pension, unemployment, and investment policies have further aligned legislative output, while historical precedent from prior grand coalitions under Angela Merkel demonstrates their capacity to complete full terms despite internal tensions. State election results and SPD weakness introduce longer-term pressures, but no immediate triggers—such as leadership disputes or fiscal standoffs—have emerged to shift trader expectations before the end of 2026.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$70,533 交易量
$70,533 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$70,533 交易量
$70,533 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.The CDU/CSU–SPD grand coalition, formed in May 2025 under Chancellor Friedrich Merz following the February snap election, has advanced shared priorities including budget measures, tax and labor reforms, and EU-related initiatives without major parliamentary defeats or no-confidence motions through mid-2026. Both parties face strong incentives to sustain the arrangement, given the AfD’s polling strength and the absence of viable alternative majorities that avoid far-right support. Recent agreements on pension, unemployment, and investment policies have further aligned legislative output, while historical precedent from prior grand coalitions under Angela Merkel demonstrates their capacity to complete full terms despite internal tensions. State election results and SPD weakness introduce longer-term pressures, but no immediate triggers—such as leadership disputes or fiscal standoffs—have emerged to shift trader expectations before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.
市場開放時間： Dec 3, 2025, 12:16 PM ET
交易量
$70,533結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 3, 2025, 12:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.The CDU/CSU–SPD grand coalition, formed in May 2025 under Chancellor Friedrich Merz following the February snap election, has advanced shared priorities including budget measures, tax and labor reforms, and EU-related initiatives without major parliamentary defeats or no-confidence motions through mid-2026. Both parties face strong incentives to sustain the arrangement, given the AfD’s polling strength and the absence of viable alternative majorities that avoid far-right support. Recent agreements on pension, unemployment, and investment policies have further aligned legislative output, while historical precedent from prior grand coalitions under Angela Merkel demonstrates their capacity to complete full terms despite internal tensions. State election results and SPD weakness introduce longer-term pressures, but no immediate triggers—such as leadership disputes or fiscal standoffs—have emerged to shift trader expectations before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.
交易量
$70,533結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 3, 2025, 12:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The CDU/CSU–SPD grand coalition, formed in May 2025 under Chancellor Friedrich Merz following the February snap election, has advanced shared priorities including budget measures, tax and labor reforms, and EU-related initiatives without major parliamentary defeats or no-confidence motions through mid-2026. Both parties face strong incentives to sustain the arrangement, given the AfD’s polling strength and the absence of viable alternative majorities that avoid far-right support. Recent agreements on pension, unemployment, and investment policies have further aligned legislative output, while historical precedent from prior grand coalitions under Angela Merkel demonstrates their capacity to complete full terms despite internal tensions. State election results and SPD weakness introduce longer-term pressures, but no immediate triggers—such as leadership disputes or fiscal standoffs—have emerged to shift trader expectations before the end of 2026.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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