Preliminary data through mid-April 2026 positions the month to rank as the third-hottest April on record in major datasets like Copernicus ERA5 surface air temperature anomalies, driving trader consensus at 67% market-implied odds for that outcome. March 2026's fourth-warmest ranking (0.53°C above the 1991-2020 average) set a warm backdrop, but ENSO-neutral conditions—favored at 80% through June per NOAA—temper expectations by lacking the El Niño amplification seen in record-setting 2024 and 2025 Aprils. Year-to-date anomalies hover under 1.47°C above pre-industrial baselines, signaling robust anthropogenic warming yet below peak extremes. Remaining weeks' forecasts and full-month reports from NOAA and Copernicus, due early May, could shift rankings amid model uncertainty in ocean-atmosphere coupling.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年4月1日、2日、3日有史以来最热？
2026年4月1日、2日、3日有史以来最热？
第三热 66%
第二热 16%
第4或更低 9%
有记录以来最热 3.1%
$71,478 交易量
$71,478 交易量
2026-05-10
有记录以来最热
3%
第二热
16%
第三热
66%
第4或更低
9%
第三热 66%
第二热 16%
第4或更低 9%
有记录以来最热 3.1%
$71,478 交易量
$71,478 交易量
2026-05-10
有记录以来最热
$7,377 交易量
3%
第二热
$21,077 交易量
16%
第三热
$14,677 交易量
66%
第4或更低
$28,346 交易量
9%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary data through mid-April 2026 positions the month to rank as the third-hottest April on record in major datasets like Copernicus ERA5 surface air temperature anomalies, driving trader consensus at 67% market-implied odds for that outcome. March 2026's fourth-warmest ranking (0.53°C above the 1991-2020 average) set a warm backdrop, but ENSO-neutral conditions—favored at 80% through June per NOAA—temper expectations by lacking the El Niño amplification seen in record-setting 2024 and 2025 Aprils. Year-to-date anomalies hover under 1.47°C above pre-industrial baselines, signaling robust anthropogenic warming yet below peak extremes. Remaining weeks' forecasts and full-month reports from NOAA and Copernicus, due early May, could shift rankings amid model uncertainty in ocean-atmosphere coupling.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
市场开放时间： Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ET
交易量
$71,478结束日期
2026-05-10市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary data through mid-April 2026 positions the month to rank as the third-hottest April on record in major datasets like Copernicus ERA5 surface air temperature anomalies, driving trader consensus at 67% market-implied odds for that outcome. March 2026's fourth-warmest ranking (0.53°C above the 1991-2020 average) set a warm backdrop, but ENSO-neutral conditions—favored at 80% through June per NOAA—temper expectations by lacking the El Niño amplification seen in record-setting 2024 and 2025 Aprils. Year-to-date anomalies hover under 1.47°C above pre-industrial baselines, signaling robust anthropogenic warming yet below peak extremes. Remaining weeks' forecasts and full-month reports from NOAA and Copernicus, due early May, could shift rankings amid model uncertainty in ocean-atmosphere coupling.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
交易量
$71,478结束日期
2026-05-10市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary data through mid-April 2026 positions the month to rank as the third-hottest April on record in major datasets like Copernicus ERA5 surface air temperature anomalies, driving trader consensus at 67% market-implied odds for that outcome. March 2026's fourth-warmest ranking (0.53°C above the 1991-2020 average) set a warm backdrop, but ENSO-neutral conditions—favored at 80% through June per NOAA—temper expectations by lacking the El Niño amplification seen in record-setting 2024 and 2025 Aprils. Year-to-date anomalies hover under 1.47°C above pre-industrial baselines, signaling robust anthropogenic warming yet below peak extremes. Remaining weeks' forecasts and full-month reports from NOAA and Copernicus, due early May, could shift rankings amid model uncertainty in ocean-atmosphere coupling.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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