Preliminary Storm Prediction Center data as of early May shows 192 confirmed US tornadoes for April 2024, positioning the 170-199 bin as the market favorite at 52% implied probability, closely trailed by 200-229 at 41.5%. This tally aligns with the 1991-2020 climatological average of 177 tornadoes, driven by robust springtime ingredients like high CAPE (convective available potential energy), strong wind shear, and clashes between Gulf moisture and cool fronts across Tornado Alley. Mid-April outbreaks, including the April 26-28 supercell events, boosted counts significantly, but a late-month lull curbed escalation; ongoing surveys could add 10-20% more via radar and damage assessments, keeping higher bins viable amid model divergence on final tallies.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于How many Tornadoes in the US in April?
How many Tornadoes in the US in April?
170–199 50%
230–259 40%
<140 37%
350+ 37%
<140
37%
140–169
36%
170–199
50%
200–229
36%
230–259
40%
260–289
32%
290–319
34%
320–350
34%
350+
37%
170–199 50%
230–259 40%
<140 37%
350+ 37%
<140
37%
140–169
36%
170–199
50%
200–229
36%
230–259
40%
260–289
32%
290–319
34%
320–350
34%
350+
37%
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
市场开放时间: Mar 24, 2026, 6:38 PM ET
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0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary Storm Prediction Center data as of early May shows 192 confirmed US tornadoes for April 2024, positioning the 170-199 bin as the market favorite at 52% implied probability, closely trailed by 200-229 at 41.5%. This tally aligns with the 1991-2020 climatological average of 177 tornadoes, driven by robust springtime ingredients like high CAPE (convective available potential energy), strong wind shear, and clashes between Gulf moisture and cool fronts across Tornado Alley. Mid-April outbreaks, including the April 26-28 supercell events, boosted counts significantly, but a late-month lull curbed escalation; ongoing surveys could add 10-20% more via radar and damage assessments, keeping higher bins viable amid model divergence on final tallies.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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