Jay Feely holds a strong lead in the AZ-01 Republican primary trader consensus, driven by President Trump's January 2026 endorsement, over $1 million in campaign resources, and NRCC MAGA program inclusion. Joseph Chaplik, the leading state legislator challenger who resigned his seat in February to focus on the race, trails amid ongoing mutual attacks on issues like fundraising and past associations. With the July 21 primary roughly five weeks away, the market reflects Feely's advantages in endorsements and spending over other entrants including John Trobough, while noting risks from last-minute shifts or turnout among conservative voters in the open seat.