Jay Feely holds a commanding lead in the Arizona 1st Congressional District Republican primary market, driven primarily by former President Trump’s endorsement and Feely’s substantial fundraising edge over rivals. The July 21, 2026, primary features an open seat after incumbent David Schweikert entered the gubernatorial race. Former state Representative Joseph Chaplik, who resigned his legislative post in February 2026 to focus on the contest, has shown strength in at least one April poll but trails significantly in campaign resources. Other candidates including John Trobough remain far behind in both polling visibility and market pricing. Traders appear to weigh Trump’s backing and name recognition as decisive factors heading into the final weeks before the primary.