Mike Derry leads as the United Conservative Party nominee in the September 14, 2026, Calgary-Shaw by-election, following the resignation of former UCP cabinet minister Rebecca Schulz. The riding returned UCP support above 56 percent in 2023, and Derry secured the nomination in late June after defeating a sitting Calgary city councillor. NDP candidate Kyle Campbell, Liberal leader John Roggeveen, and Progressive Tory Kyle Joseph round out the field, yet face structural headwinds in a district with consistent conservative voting patterns. Premier Danielle Smith has publicly backed Derry, framing the contest around resource-sector priorities. Market pricing reflects this baseline advantage while assigning lower shares to challengers, consistent with historical incumbent-party retention rates in Alberta by-elections.