Keith Gross leads the August 18, 2026, Republican primary for Florida's open 2nd congressional district with strong trader consensus, driven by his dominant fundraising of over $10 million and roughly $4 million cash on hand as of late June. This self-funded advantage has enabled heavy spending in the crowded field that includes Austin Rogers, Evan Power, Jim Norton, Lee Jones, Luke Murphy, Nick Lewis, and Audie Rowell. Recent endorsements from multiple former members of Congress and the Republican Liberty Caucus have further reinforced Gross's position ahead of the vote. The primary's proximity and his resource edge explain the current implied probabilities, though late shifts in turnout or additional endorsements remain possible factors.