Trader sentiment on Tokyo's March 22 high temperature clusters tightly around 15-17°C (over 75% implied probability), driven by Japan Meteorological Agency's latest high-resolution forecast pinpointing 16°C under dominant high pressure and mild southerly flows, corroborated by ECMWF ensembles averaging 15.5°C. The narrow spread differentiating leaders stems from model discrepancies: GFS runs bias warmer toward 17°C with clearer skies, while JMA accounts for urban heat island effects and potential afternoon clouds capping at 15°C. Historical March averages (~13°C) are outpaced by lingering mild winter patterns from El Niño residuals, but uncertainty lingers in diurnal peak timing and frontal boundary evolution ahead of evening updates.