Trump's January 2026 threats to invoke the Insurrection Act amid protests against expanded ICE operations in Minnesota represent the central driver of trader sentiment. Following an ICE officer's fatal shooting during enforcement actions and subsequent demonstrations, the president publicly stated he would use the 1807 law if state officials failed to curb unrest, after prior attempts to federalize National Guard units under alternative statutes faced court blocks, including a Supreme Court ruling. No invocation has occurred to date, leaving implied probabilities for action by late 2026 in the low-to-mid 20s percent range as traders weigh escalation risks from ongoing border enforcement, potential protest flare-ups, and separate congressional proposals to reform the act's broad authorities before the September 30, 2026 resolution deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$1,122,886 交易量
2026-12-31
9月30日
10%
12月31日
19%
$1,122,886 交易量
9月30日
$0 交易量
10%
12月31日
$156,799 交易量
19%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump's January 2026 threats to invoke the Insurrection Act amid protests against expanded ICE operations in Minnesota represent the central driver of trader sentiment. Following an ICE officer's fatal shooting during enforcement actions and subsequent demonstrations, the president publicly stated he would use the 1807 law if state officials failed to curb unrest, after prior attempts to federalize National Guard units under alternative statutes faced court blocks, including a Supreme Court ruling. No invocation has occurred to date, leaving implied probabilities for action by late 2026 in the low-to-mid 20s percent range as traders weigh escalation risks from ongoing border enforcement, potential protest flare-ups, and separate congressional proposals to reform the act's broad authorities before the September 30, 2026 resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jan 6, 2026, 10:17 AM ET
交易量
$1,122,886结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 10:17 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump's January 2026 threats to invoke the Insurrection Act amid protests against expanded ICE operations in Minnesota represent the central driver of trader sentiment. Following an ICE officer's fatal shooting during enforcement actions and subsequent demonstrations, the president publicly stated he would use the 1807 law if state officials failed to curb unrest, after prior attempts to federalize National Guard units under alternative statutes faced court blocks, including a Supreme Court ruling. No invocation has occurred to date, leaving implied probabilities for action by late 2026 in the low-to-mid 20s percent range as traders weigh escalation risks from ongoing border enforcement, potential protest flare-ups, and separate congressional proposals to reform the act's broad authorities before the September 30, 2026 resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,122,886结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 10:17 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump's January 2026 threats to invoke the Insurrection Act amid protests against expanded ICE operations in Minnesota represent the central driver of trader sentiment. Following an ICE officer's fatal shooting during enforcement actions and subsequent demonstrations, the president publicly stated he would use the 1807 law if state officials failed to curb unrest, after prior attempts to federalize National Guard units under alternative statutes faced court blocks, including a Supreme Court ruling. No invocation has occurred to date, leaving implied probabilities for action by late 2026 in the low-to-mid 20s percent range as traders weigh escalation risks from ongoing border enforcement, potential protest flare-ups, and separate congressional proposals to reform the act's broad authorities before the September 30, 2026 resolution deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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