Republican control of Congress and strong alignment between Vice President JD Vance and a Trump-appointed Cabinet create substantial procedural hurdles under Section 4 of the 25th Amendment, which requires their written declaration of incapacity plus congressional supermajorities if contested. Recent public calls for invocation from Democratic lawmakers and commentators over the president’s social media activity and policy statements have generated attention but produced no institutional support or defections among key officials. Trader pricing at 97% for “No” reflects these durable alignments and the amendment’s historical non-use for removal, though a sudden health crisis or post-midterm shift in Cabinet composition could still alter the outlook before the end of 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
3% 概率
$50,094 交易量
$50,094 交易量
2026-12-31
是
3% 概率
$50,094 交易量
$50,094 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is formally removed from the office of the President of the United States by means of the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.Republican control of Congress and strong alignment between Vice President JD Vance and a Trump-appointed Cabinet create substantial procedural hurdles under Section 4 of the 25th Amendment, which requires their written declaration of incapacity plus congressional supermajorities if contested. Recent public calls for invocation from Democratic lawmakers and commentators over the president’s social media activity and policy statements have generated attention but produced no institutional support or defections among key officials. Trader pricing at 97% for “No” reflects these durable alignments and the amendment’s historical non-use for removal, though a sudden health crisis or post-midterm shift in Cabinet composition could still alter the outlook before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is formally removed from the office of the President of the United States by means of the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.
If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
交易量
$50,094结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 1:15 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is formally removed from the office of the President of the United States by means of the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.Republican control of Congress and strong alignment between Vice President JD Vance and a Trump-appointed Cabinet create substantial procedural hurdles under Section 4 of the 25th Amendment, which requires their written declaration of incapacity plus congressional supermajorities if contested. Recent public calls for invocation from Democratic lawmakers and commentators over the president’s social media activity and policy statements have generated attention but produced no institutional support or defections among key officials. Trader pricing at 97% for “No” reflects these durable alignments and the amendment’s historical non-use for removal, though a sudden health crisis or post-midterm shift in Cabinet composition could still alter the outlook before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is formally removed from the office of the President of the United States by means of the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.
If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.
交易量
$50,094结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 1:15 PM ETRepublican control of Congress and strong alignment between Vice President JD Vance and a Trump-appointed Cabinet create substantial procedural hurdles under Section 4 of the 25th Amendment, which requires their written declaration of incapacity plus congressional supermajorities if contested. Recent public calls for invocation from Democratic lawmakers and commentators over the president’s social media activity and policy statements have generated attention but produced no institutional support or defections among key officials. Trader pricing at 97% for “No” reflects these durable alignments and the amendment’s historical non-use for removal, though a sudden health crisis or post-midterm shift in Cabinet composition could still alter the outlook before the end of 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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