Trump’s second term, now roughly 19 months old as of August 2026, shows no verified signals of voluntary departure despite staff turnover, midterm pressures, and public speculation from critics about health or fatigue. Presidents have completed second terms at high rates absent acute legal or medical crises, and Trump continues policy initiatives, foreign engagements including the Iran conflict, and public appearances while acknowledging constitutional term limits. Trader consensus at 96.7 percent against resignation before 2027 aligns with this record and the lack of primary-source evidence for early exit. Scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden incapacitating health event, bipartisan impeachment momentum after midterms, or an unprecedented personal decision tied to war fatigue or approval erosion below 40 percent.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
3% 概率
$23,418 交易量
$23,418 交易量
2026-12-30
是
3% 概率
$23,418 交易量
$23,418 交易量
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trump’s second term, now roughly 19 months old as of August 2026, shows no verified signals of voluntary departure despite staff turnover, midterm pressures, and public speculation from critics about health or fatigue. Presidents have completed second terms at high rates absent acute legal or medical crises, and Trump continues policy initiatives, foreign engagements including the Iran conflict, and public appearances while acknowledging constitutional term limits. Trader consensus at 96.7 percent against resignation before 2027 aligns with this record and the lack of primary-source evidence for early exit. Scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden incapacitating health event, bipartisan impeachment momentum after midterms, or an unprecedented personal decision tied to war fatigue or approval erosion below 40 percent.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ET
交易量
$23,418结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trump’s second term, now roughly 19 months old as of August 2026, shows no verified signals of voluntary departure despite staff turnover, midterm pressures, and public speculation from critics about health or fatigue. Presidents have completed second terms at high rates absent acute legal or medical crises, and Trump continues policy initiatives, foreign engagements including the Iran conflict, and public appearances while acknowledging constitutional term limits. Trader consensus at 96.7 percent against resignation before 2027 aligns with this record and the lack of primary-source evidence for early exit. Scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden incapacitating health event, bipartisan impeachment momentum after midterms, or an unprecedented personal decision tied to war fatigue or approval erosion below 40 percent.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$23,418结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump’s second term, now roughly 19 months old as of August 2026, shows no verified signals of voluntary departure despite staff turnover, midterm pressures, and public speculation from critics about health or fatigue. Presidents have completed second terms at high rates absent acute legal or medical crises, and Trump continues policy initiatives, foreign engagements including the Iran conflict, and public appearances while acknowledging constitutional term limits. Trader consensus at 96.7 percent against resignation before 2027 aligns with this record and the lack of primary-source evidence for early exit. Scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden incapacitating health event, bipartisan impeachment momentum after midterms, or an unprecedented personal decision tied to war fatigue or approval erosion below 40 percent.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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