US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran since February 28, 2026—targeting military sites, missile launchers, and leadership—have defined the ongoing conflict, with recent Israeli operations in Tehran suppressing Tehran's missile capabilities. A fragile ceasefire hangs in the balance as Iran rejects US proposals amid its Strait of Hormuz blockade, prompting US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's April 16 warning of strikes on energy infrastructure if talks fail. Israel maintains maximum military readiness, preparing updated plans for missile arrays and energy targets pending Washington's approval. Traders weigh escalation risks against diplomatic deadlines, including potential Israel-Lebanon talks and US ultimatum expirations that could trigger renewed hostilities or de-escalation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$1,685,642 交易量
2026-04-21
4月14日
<1%
4月21日
8%
$1,685,642 交易量
4月14日
$1,177,123 交易量
<1%
4月21日
$508,519 交易量
8%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran since February 28, 2026—targeting military sites, missile launchers, and leadership—have defined the ongoing conflict, with recent Israeli operations in Tehran suppressing Tehran's missile capabilities. A fragile ceasefire hangs in the balance as Iran rejects US proposals amid its Strait of Hormuz blockade, prompting US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's April 16 warning of strikes on energy infrastructure if talks fail. Israel maintains maximum military readiness, preparing updated plans for missile arrays and energy targets pending Washington's approval. Traders weigh escalation risks against diplomatic deadlines, including potential Israel-Lebanon talks and US ultimatum expirations that could trigger renewed hostilities or de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
市场开放时间： Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ET
交易量
$1,685,642结束日期
2026-04-21市场开放时间
Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran since February 28, 2026—targeting military sites, missile launchers, and leadership—have defined the ongoing conflict, with recent Israeli operations in Tehran suppressing Tehran's missile capabilities. A fragile ceasefire hangs in the balance as Iran rejects US proposals amid its Strait of Hormuz blockade, prompting US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's April 16 warning of strikes on energy infrastructure if talks fail. Israel maintains maximum military readiness, preparing updated plans for missile arrays and energy targets pending Washington's approval. Traders weigh escalation risks against diplomatic deadlines, including potential Israel-Lebanon talks and US ultimatum expirations that could trigger renewed hostilities or de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
交易量
$1,685,642结束日期
2026-04-21市场开放时间
Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran since February 28, 2026—targeting military sites, missile launchers, and leadership—have defined the ongoing conflict, with recent Israeli operations in Tehran suppressing Tehran's missile capabilities. A fragile ceasefire hangs in the balance as Iran rejects US proposals amid its Strait of Hormuz blockade, prompting US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's April 16 warning of strikes on energy infrastructure if talks fail. Israel maintains maximum military readiness, preparing updated plans for missile arrays and energy targets pending Washington's approval. Traders weigh escalation risks against diplomatic deadlines, including potential Israel-Lebanon talks and US ultimatum expirations that could trigger renewed hostilities or de-escalation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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