Market icon

2026年第一季度日本GDP增长情况如何?

Market icon

2026年第一季度日本GDP增长情况如何?

May 19

May 19

0.9–1.1% 39%

0.3–0.5% 34%

0.6–0.8% 34%

≤-0.4% 33%

Polymarket
NEW

0.9–1.1% 39%

0.3–0.5% 34%

0.6–0.8% 34%

≤-0.4% 33%

Polymarket
NEW

≤-0.4%

$0 交易量

33%

-0.3%–-0.1%

$0 交易量

32%

0.0–0.2%

$0 交易量

34%

0.3–0.5%

$16 交易量

34%

0.6–0.8%

$0 交易量

34%

0.9–1.1%

$0 交易量

39%

1.2%及以上

$12 交易量

32%

This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.

The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
交易量
$29
结束日期
May 19, 2026
市场开放时间
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026. The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"2026年第一季度日本GDP增长情况如何?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 7 个可能结果的预测市场,交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"0.9–1.1%",概率为 39%,其次是"0.0–0.2%",概率为 34%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如,价格为 39¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 39%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

"2026年第一季度日本GDP增长情况如何?"是 Polymarket 上新创建的市场,于Feb 17, 2026上线。作为一个新市场,这是你率先设定赔率并建立初始价格信号的机会。你也可以将本页加入书签,以便跟踪交易量和活动。

要在"2026年第一季度日本GDP增长情况如何?"上交易,浏览本页上列出的 7 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓,选择你认为最可能的结果,选择"是"支持或"否"反对,输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确,你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确,支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"2026年第一季度日本GDP增长情况如何?"的当前领先者是"0.9–1.1%",概率为 39%,意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 39%。紧随其后的结果是"0.0–0.2%",概率为 34%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"2026年第一季度日本GDP增长情况如何?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。