France’s fragmented National Assembly continues to shape prospects for Sébastien Lecornu’s tenure as prime minister. After the 2024 legislative elections produced no majority, successive governments have relied on Article 49.3 to pass budgets, triggering repeated no-confidence motions from both Rassemblement National and La France Insoumise. Lecornu survived two such votes in January 2026 and secured passage of the 2026 budget in February, yet the underlying arithmetic remains unchanged. Recent months have seen no new legislative crises, though the government faces ongoing fiscal pressure and potential future challenges before the 2027 presidential contest. Traders weigh these procedural and coalition dynamics when assessing removal timelines.