**President Lee Jae-myung faces negligible near-term impeachment risk through the end of 2026.** South Korea’s constitution requires an impeachment motion to secure a National Assembly majority to propose it and a two-thirds supermajority (200 of 300 seats) to pass. Lee’s Democratic Party of Korea holds 161 seats, while the main opposition People Power Party holds 110; cross-party defections sufficient to reach 200 votes remain absent. A June 2026 citizen petition gathered over 100,000 signatures citing suspended criminal cases (property development and election-law matters paused after his June 2025 inauguration), yet the petition advanced no further because the ruling party controls the relevant committee and plenary agenda. Opposition criticism has focused on policy disputes, housing prices, and judicial appointments, but these have produced only rhetorical threats rather than coordinated legislative action. Lee’s approval rating has fallen into the high 30s amid economic and housing concerns, yet it has not generated the broad elite or public consensus needed for removal. With roughly four months remaining before 2027 and no scheduled votes or procedural triggers capable of overcoming the arithmetic barrier, traders price the probability of impeachment before the deadline at roughly 9 percent.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$21,626 交易量
$21,626 交易量
是
$21,626 交易量
$21,626 交易量
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ET
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
**President Lee Jae-myung faces negligible near-term impeachment risk through the end of 2026.** South Korea’s constitution requires an impeachment motion to secure a National Assembly majority to propose it and a two-thirds supermajority (200 of 300 seats) to pass. Lee’s Democratic Party of Korea holds 161 seats, while the main opposition People Power Party holds 110; cross-party defections sufficient to reach 200 votes remain absent. A June 2026 citizen petition gathered over 100,000 signatures citing suspended criminal cases (property development and election-law matters paused after his June 2025 inauguration), yet the petition advanced no further because the ruling party controls the relevant committee and plenary agenda. Opposition criticism has focused on policy disputes, housing prices, and judicial appointments, but these have produced only rhetorical threats rather than coordinated legislative action. Lee’s approval rating has fallen into the high 30s amid economic and housing concerns, yet it has not generated the broad elite or public consensus needed for removal. With roughly four months remaining before 2027 and no scheduled votes or procedural triggers capable of overcoming the arithmetic barrier, traders price the probability of impeachment before the deadline at roughly 9 percent.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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