The Mato Grosso do Sul Senate race for the two seats up in the October 2026 election features a fragmented field of roughly ten registered candidates, with recent August polls from institutes such as Ranking Brasil and Real Time Big Data showing Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) and Capitão Contar (PL) leading or tied near the top alongside Nelsinho Trad (PSD), while Vander Loubet (PT), Soraya Thronicke (PSB), and several others trail in the mid-teens or lower. This produces tight implied probabilities for second place because bloc voting, party alliances, and undecided voters create shifting margins among the top four or five contenders rather than a clear frontrunner. Internal PL negotiations over which name advances alongside Azambuja, combined with the absence of a dominant incumbent advantage, keep the ordering fluid. Fresh polling releases, formal endorsements from state or national figures, or late campaign developments within the next eight weeks could widen gaps by clarifying voter consolidation behind one or two names.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于卡皮唐·孔塔尔 40%
雷纳尔多·阿赞布贾 25%
Valderi Garcia 24%
贝托·杜·莫维门图 24%
最新
最新
2026-10-04
卡皮唐·孔塔尔
40%
雷纳尔多·阿赞布贾
25%
Valderi Garcia
24%
贝托·杜·莫维门图
24%
丹尼尔·儒尼奥尔
24%
罗伯托·大城
23%
Valter da Comagran
23%
索拉娅
23%
Vander Loubet
23%
Luiz Lemes
22%
卡皮唐·孔塔尔 40%
雷纳尔多·阿赞布贾 25%
Valderi Garcia 24%
贝托·杜·莫维门图 24%
最新
最新
2026-10-04
卡皮唐·孔塔尔
$140 交易量
40%
雷纳尔多·阿赞布贾
$0 交易量
25%
Valderi Garcia
$0 交易量
24%
贝托·杜·莫维门图
$0 交易量
24%
丹尼尔·儒尼奥尔
$0 交易量
24%
罗伯托·大城
$0 交易量
23%
Valter da Comagran
$0 交易量
23%
索拉娅
$0 交易量
23%
Vander Loubet
$0 交易量
23%
Luiz Lemes
$0 交易量
22%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Mato Grosso do Sul Senate race for the two seats up in the October 2026 election features a fragmented field of roughly ten registered candidates, with recent August polls from institutes such as Ranking Brasil and Real Time Big Data showing Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) and Capitão Contar (PL) leading or tied near the top alongside Nelsinho Trad (PSD), while Vander Loubet (PT), Soraya Thronicke (PSB), and several others trail in the mid-teens or lower. This produces tight implied probabilities for second place because bloc voting, party alliances, and undecided voters create shifting margins among the top four or five contenders rather than a clear frontrunner. Internal PL negotiations over which name advances alongside Azambuja, combined with the absence of a dominant incumbent advantage, keep the ordering fluid. Fresh polling releases, formal endorsements from state or national figures, or late campaign developments within the next eight weeks could widen gaps by clarifying voter consolidation behind one or two names.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市场开放时间： Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
交易量
$140结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Mato Grosso do Sul Senate race for the two seats up in the October 2026 election features a fragmented field of roughly ten registered candidates, with recent August polls from institutes such as Ranking Brasil and Real Time Big Data showing Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) and Capitão Contar (PL) leading or tied near the top alongside Nelsinho Trad (PSD), while Vander Loubet (PT), Soraya Thronicke (PSB), and several others trail in the mid-teens or lower. This produces tight implied probabilities for second place because bloc voting, party alliances, and undecided voters create shifting margins among the top four or five contenders rather than a clear frontrunner. Internal PL negotiations over which name advances alongside Azambuja, combined with the absence of a dominant incumbent advantage, keep the ordering fluid. Fresh polling releases, formal endorsements from state or national figures, or late campaign developments within the next eight weeks could widen gaps by clarifying voter consolidation behind one or two names.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$140结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Mato Grosso do Sul Senate race for the two seats up in the October 2026 election features a fragmented field of roughly ten registered candidates, with recent August polls from institutes such as Ranking Brasil and Real Time Big Data showing Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) and Capitão Contar (PL) leading or tied near the top alongside Nelsinho Trad (PSD), while Vander Loubet (PT), Soraya Thronicke (PSB), and several others trail in the mid-teens or lower. This produces tight implied probabilities for second place because bloc voting, party alliances, and undecided voters create shifting margins among the top four or five contenders rather than a clear frontrunner. Internal PL negotiations over which name advances alongside Azambuja, combined with the absence of a dominant incumbent advantage, keep the ordering fluid. Fresh polling releases, formal endorsements from state or national figures, or late campaign developments within the next eight weeks could widen gaps by clarifying voter consolidation behind one or two names.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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