Claire Valdez leads the June 23 Democratic primary for New York’s 7th Congressional District at 77 percent implied probability in trader consensus, ahead of Antonio Reynoso at 19 percent, as recent polling and endorsements shape positioning ahead of the open seat to succeed retiring Representative Nydia Velázquez. A late-May Emerson survey showed Valdez narrowly ahead of Reynoso among likely voters with 43 percent undecided, while Valdez maintains an edge in early fundraising. Her backing from Mayor Zohran Mamdani, the New York City chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America, Senator Bernie Sanders, and unions including the United Auto Workers and Association of Flight Attendants provides organizational and volunteer advantages in Brooklyn and Queens turnout efforts. Reynoso holds Velázquez’s endorsement along with broader labor and local elected support rooted in his record as Brooklyn borough president. Other candidates trail significantly in both polling and market pricing.