Elaine Pelino holds a commanding lead in the Rhode Island Republican primary for governor, scheduled for September 9, reflecting trader consensus on her polling edge among likely GOP primary voters. Recent surveys show her ahead of Aaron Guckian by roughly 20 points or more, with other candidates at negligible support, even as Guckian secured the state party endorsement at the June convention. Pelino’s positioning on fiscal restraint, law enforcement support, and government accountability has resonated in a low-turnout primary environment where undecided voters remain a factor. Guckian’s experience as a former aide to a prior Republican governor and focus on efficiency have not closed the gap in head-to-head polling. With early voting underway and the primary only days away, a major late shift would require unusually high undecided turnout favoring the endorsed candidate.