Russia's September 2026 State Duma elections feature a 5% party-list threshold for proportional representation seats. Yabloko has polled consistently between 2% and 3% in recent surveys, aligning with its 1.2% result in 2021. Extensive administrative measures have removed dozens of its candidates, barred key figures including former leader Nikolai Rybakov from the party list via Supreme Court ruling in August 2026, and imposed fines, searches, and foreign-agent designations on party members. These constraints, combined with the party's limited national infrastructure and anti-war positioning, underpin trader consensus that the threshold will not be cleared. Remaining single-member district candidacies offer minimal impact on the national party-list vote share. Shifts could occur only through sudden polling surges, last-minute legal reversals restoring ballot access, or major changes in turnout patterns among younger or regional voters.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
3% 概率
$47,762 交易量
$47,762 交易量
2026-09-20
是
3% 概率
$47,762 交易量
$47,762 交易量
2026-09-20
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Russia's September 2026 State Duma elections feature a 5% party-list threshold for proportional representation seats. Yabloko has polled consistently between 2% and 3% in recent surveys, aligning with its 1.2% result in 2021. Extensive administrative measures have removed dozens of its candidates, barred key figures including former leader Nikolai Rybakov from the party list via Supreme Court ruling in August 2026, and imposed fines, searches, and foreign-agent designations on party members. These constraints, combined with the party's limited national infrastructure and anti-war positioning, underpin trader consensus that the threshold will not be cleared. Remaining single-member district candidacies offer minimal impact on the national party-list vote share. Shifts could occur only through sudden polling surges, last-minute legal reversals restoring ballot access, or major changes in turnout patterns among younger or regional voters.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
市场开放时间： Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ET
交易量
$47,762结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Russia's September 2026 State Duma elections feature a 5% party-list threshold for proportional representation seats. Yabloko has polled consistently between 2% and 3% in recent surveys, aligning with its 1.2% result in 2021. Extensive administrative measures have removed dozens of its candidates, barred key figures including former leader Nikolai Rybakov from the party list via Supreme Court ruling in August 2026, and imposed fines, searches, and foreign-agent designations on party members. These constraints, combined with the party's limited national infrastructure and anti-war positioning, underpin trader consensus that the threshold will not be cleared. Remaining single-member district candidacies offer minimal impact on the national party-list vote share. Shifts could occur only through sudden polling surges, last-minute legal reversals restoring ballot access, or major changes in turnout patterns among younger or regional voters.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
交易量
$47,762结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's September 2026 State Duma elections feature a 5% party-list threshold for proportional representation seats. Yabloko has polled consistently between 2% and 3% in recent surveys, aligning with its 1.2% result in 2021. Extensive administrative measures have removed dozens of its candidates, barred key figures including former leader Nikolai Rybakov from the party list via Supreme Court ruling in August 2026, and imposed fines, searches, and foreign-agent designations on party members. These constraints, combined with the party's limited national infrastructure and anti-war positioning, underpin trader consensus that the threshold will not be cleared. Remaining single-member district candidacies offer minimal impact on the national party-list vote share. Shifts could occur only through sudden polling surges, last-minute legal reversals restoring ballot access, or major changes in turnout patterns among younger or regional voters.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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