In the South Carolina 1st Congressional District Republican primary, no candidate secured a majority in the June 9 vote amid an unusually large field, sending the top two finishers—Charleston County Councilmember Jenny Costa Honeycutt at roughly 22 percent and state Representative Mark Smith at 18 percent—into a June 23 runoff. Traders assign Smith the highest implied probability of prevailing in that contest, followed by Honeycutt, while lower-polling candidates such as Sam McCown, Alex Pelbath, and Jay Byars trail far behind. Honeycutt’s initial lead drew support from her local government record and emphasis on affordability and fiscal restraint, whereas Smith benefits from state legislative experience and organized grassroots backing in the runoff phase. An upcoming GOP-hosted debate on June 17 offers the final major opportunity for candidates to shift voter preferences before ballots are cast.