President-elect Donald Trump remains on track for inauguration on January 20, 2025, with traders pricing a 98.2% implied probability he will not vacate the presidency by April 30 amid a smooth transition featuring ongoing cabinet nominations and no verified health issues, legal disqualifications, or resignation signals in recent weeks. Historical precedent shows new administrations rarely face early removal via impeachment, 25th Amendment invocation, or resignation without major catalysts, none of which have emerged post-election certification. Realistic upset scenarios include a sudden incapacity prompting vice-presidential action or unprecedented court ruling on eligibility, though these remain low-probability outliers reflected in market pricing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
NEW
$38,014 交易量
NEW
$38,014 交易量
Apr 30, 2026
是
NEW
$38,014 交易量
NEW
$38,014 交易量
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.President-elect Donald Trump remains on track for inauguration on January 20, 2025, with traders pricing a 98.2% implied probability he will not vacate the presidency by April 30 amid a smooth transition featuring ongoing cabinet nominations and no verified health issues, legal disqualifications, or resignation signals in recent weeks. Historical precedent shows new administrations rarely face early removal via impeachment, 25th Amendment invocation, or resignation without major catalysts, none of which have emerged post-election certification. Realistic upset scenarios include a sudden incapacity prompting vice-presidential action or unprecedented court ruling on eligibility, though these remain low-probability outliers reflected in market pricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 26, 2026, 2:46 PM ET
交易量
$38,014结束日期
Apr 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 26, 2026, 2:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.President-elect Donald Trump remains on track for inauguration on January 20, 2025, with traders pricing a 98.2% implied probability he will not vacate the presidency by April 30 amid a smooth transition featuring ongoing cabinet nominations and no verified health issues, legal disqualifications, or resignation signals in recent weeks. Historical precedent shows new administrations rarely face early removal via impeachment, 25th Amendment invocation, or resignation without major catalysts, none of which have emerged post-election certification. Realistic upset scenarios include a sudden incapacity prompting vice-presidential action or unprecedented court ruling on eligibility, though these remain low-probability outliers reflected in market pricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$38,014结束日期
Apr 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 26, 2026, 2:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President-elect Donald Trump remains on track for inauguration on January 20, 2025, with traders pricing a 98.2% implied probability he will not vacate the presidency by April 30 amid a smooth transition featuring ongoing cabinet nominations and no verified health issues, legal disqualifications, or resignation signals in recent weeks. Historical precedent shows new administrations rarely face early removal via impeachment, 25th Amendment invocation, or resignation without major catalysts, none of which have emerged post-election certification. Realistic upset scenarios include a sudden incapacity prompting vice-presidential action or unprecedented court ruling on eligibility, though these remain low-probability outliers reflected in market pricing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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