Traders' 72% implied probability on "No" reflects the absence of any introduced federal legislation targeting sports prediction markets, amid Congress's focus on higher-priority issues like appropriations and debt ceiling negotiations in late 2024. The incoming 119th Congress, with Republican majorities in both chambers following the 2024 elections, shows little appetite for new regulatory burdens on gaming-adjacent sectors, as sports betting expands in 38 states post-2018 Supreme Court ruling. Existing CFTC prohibitions on gaming event contracts already limit such markets, diminishing urgency for a 2026 ban. No recent hearings, endorsements, or scandals have shifted sentiment, with next potential catalyst being early 2025 committee assignments.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
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Jun 30, 2026
是
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Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders' 72% implied probability on "No" reflects the absence of any introduced federal legislation targeting sports prediction markets, amid Congress's focus on higher-priority issues like appropriations and debt ceiling negotiations in late 2024. The incoming 119th Congress, with Republican majorities in both chambers following the 2024 elections, shows little appetite for new regulatory burdens on gaming-adjacent sectors, as sports betting expands in 38 states post-2018 Supreme Court ruling. Existing CFTC prohibitions on gaming event contracts already limit such markets, diminishing urgency for a 2026 ban. No recent hearings, endorsements, or scandals have shifted sentiment, with next potential catalyst being early 2025 committee assignments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 27, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 27, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders' 72% implied probability on "No" reflects the absence of any introduced federal legislation targeting sports prediction markets, amid Congress's focus on higher-priority issues like appropriations and debt ceiling negotiations in late 2024. The incoming 119th Congress, with Republican majorities in both chambers following the 2024 elections, shows little appetite for new regulatory burdens on gaming-adjacent sectors, as sports betting expands in 38 states post-2018 Supreme Court ruling. Existing CFTC prohibitions on gaming event contracts already limit such markets, diminishing urgency for a 2026 ban. No recent hearings, endorsements, or scandals have shifted sentiment, with next potential catalyst being early 2025 committee assignments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$0结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 27, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders' 72% implied probability on "No" reflects the absence of any introduced federal legislation targeting sports prediction markets, amid Congress's focus on higher-priority issues like appropriations and debt ceiling negotiations in late 2024. The incoming 119th Congress, with Republican majorities in both chambers following the 2024 elections, shows little appetite for new regulatory burdens on gaming-adjacent sectors, as sports betting expands in 38 states post-2018 Supreme Court ruling. Existing CFTC prohibitions on gaming event contracts already limit such markets, diminishing urgency for a 2026 ban. No recent hearings, endorsements, or scandals have shifted sentiment, with next potential catalyst being early 2025 committee assignments.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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