Democrats’ strong prospects for regaining House control in the November 2026 midterms remain the dominant factor behind the 70.5% implied probability that Trump faces impeachment before January 2029. With a Democratic majority, the chamber could advance articles of impeachment through committee and floor votes, as occurred in prior proceedings. Recent catalysts include April 2026 Democratic calls—now exceeding 70 members—for impeachment or 25th Amendment invocation tied to Trump’s Truth Social statements on Iran, alongside introduced resolutions citing high crimes and misdemeanors. Low presidential approval ratings and partisan divisions have sustained momentum, though any Senate acquittal would still require only a simple majority in the upper chamber under current rules. Traders price the outcome as contingent on midterm results and subsequent legislative action rather than guaranteed removal.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
71% 概率
$93,042 交易量
$93,042 交易量
2029-01-19
是
71% 概率
$93,042 交易量
$93,042 交易量
2029-01-19
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Democrats’ strong prospects for regaining House control in the November 2026 midterms remain the dominant factor behind the 70.5% implied probability that Trump faces impeachment before January 2029. With a Democratic majority, the chamber could advance articles of impeachment through committee and floor votes, as occurred in prior proceedings. Recent catalysts include April 2026 Democratic calls—now exceeding 70 members—for impeachment or 25th Amendment invocation tied to Trump’s Truth Social statements on Iran, alongside introduced resolutions citing high crimes and misdemeanors. Low presidential approval ratings and partisan divisions have sustained momentum, though any Senate acquittal would still require only a simple majority in the upper chamber under current rules. Traders price the outcome as contingent on midterm results and subsequent legislative action rather than guaranteed removal.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
交易量
$93,042结束日期
2029-01-20市场开放时间
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Democrats’ strong prospects for regaining House control in the November 2026 midterms remain the dominant factor behind the 70.5% implied probability that Trump faces impeachment before January 2029. With a Democratic majority, the chamber could advance articles of impeachment through committee and floor votes, as occurred in prior proceedings. Recent catalysts include April 2026 Democratic calls—now exceeding 70 members—for impeachment or 25th Amendment invocation tied to Trump’s Truth Social statements on Iran, alongside introduced resolutions citing high crimes and misdemeanors. Low presidential approval ratings and partisan divisions have sustained momentum, though any Senate acquittal would still require only a simple majority in the upper chamber under current rules. Traders price the outcome as contingent on midterm results and subsequent legislative action rather than guaranteed removal.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
交易量
$93,042结束日期
2029-01-20市场开放时间
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Democrats’ strong prospects for regaining House control in the November 2026 midterms remain the dominant factor behind the 70.5% implied probability that Trump faces impeachment before January 2029. With a Democratic majority, the chamber could advance articles of impeachment through committee and floor votes, as occurred in prior proceedings. Recent catalysts include April 2026 Democratic calls—now exceeding 70 members—for impeachment or 25th Amendment invocation tied to Trump’s Truth Social statements on Iran, alongside introduced resolutions citing high crimes and misdemeanors. Low presidential approval ratings and partisan divisions have sustained momentum, though any Senate acquittal would still require only a simple majority in the upper chamber under current rules. Traders price the outcome as contingent on midterm results and subsequent legislative action rather than guaranteed removal.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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