Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin 50.5% implied probability for House impeachment of President-elect Trump before January 20, 2029, driven primarily by the GOP's narrow House majority—currently around 220-215—which limits Democratic leverage but leaves room for Republican defections amid controversies. Recent catalysts include Democratic vows to pursue articles over January 6-related issues and ongoing legal scrutiny of Trump's business dealings, offset by unified Republican leadership under Speaker Johnson pledging loyalty. Tipping factors could include major scandals eroding GOP unity, 2026 midterms flipping House control to Democrats, or Trump administration successes solidifying party discipline, underscoring the market's sensitivity to congressional dynamics and political volatility.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Jan 20, 2029
NEW
NEW
Jan 20, 2029
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
交易量
$1,676结束日期
Jan 20, 2029市场开放时间
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
交易量
$1,676结束日期
Jan 20, 2029市场开放时间
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin 50.5% implied probability for House impeachment of President-elect Trump before January 20, 2029, driven primarily by the GOP's narrow House majority—currently around 220-215—which limits Democratic leverage but leaves room for Republican defections amid controversies. Recent catalysts include Democratic vows to pursue articles over January 6-related issues and ongoing legal scrutiny of Trump's business dealings, offset by unified Republican leadership under Speaker Johnson pledging loyalty. Tipping factors could include major scandals eroding GOP unity, 2026 midterms flipping House control to Democrats, or Trump administration successes solidifying party discipline, underscoring the market's sensitivity to congressional dynamics and political volatility.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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