Republican majorities in both chambers of the 119th Congress have blocked all Democratic-led impeachment resolutions introduced since late 2025, including those tied to foreign policy actions during the Iran conflict. With only five months remaining before the December 31, 2026 deadline, the current House lacks the votes or procedural path for articles to advance. The November 2026 midterms introduce the main variable, as a Democratic House takeover would not take effect until the new Congress convenes in January 2027. Traders assign just 1.7% probability to impeachment occurring because any successful effort would require unexpected Republican defections or an unusually rapid lame-duck session. Even then, Senate conviction thresholds would remain a separate barrier.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$987,960 交易量
$987,960 交易量
是
$987,960 交易量
$987,960 交易量
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
市场开放时间： Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ET
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Republican majorities in both chambers of the 119th Congress have blocked all Democratic-led impeachment resolutions introduced since late 2025, including those tied to foreign policy actions during the Iran conflict. With only five months remaining before the December 31, 2026 deadline, the current House lacks the votes or procedural path for articles to advance. The November 2026 midterms introduce the main variable, as a Democratic House takeover would not take effect until the new Congress convenes in January 2027. Traders assign just 1.7% probability to impeachment occurring because any successful effort would require unexpected Republican defections or an unusually rapid lame-duck session. Even then, Senate conviction thresholds would remain a separate barrier.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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