Trump’s active 2026 midterm endorsement campaign, delivered primarily through Truth Social statements and supported by over $138 million in recent super PAC ad reservations across roughly 50 races, continues to drive trader consensus on likely recipients. His pattern of early, high-volume backing for Republican incumbents and select challengers—yielding a 96% primary success rate—has reinforced probabilities for candidates such as Ken Paxton in Texas and Andy Barr in Kentucky, while lower odds reflect those without recent signals. On September 14 he described any 2028 presidential endorsement as premature, keeping focus on November general-election contests. Scheduled voting dates and any late-cycle announcements remain the main variables that could shift remaining probabilities.