Trader consensus reflects a 90.5% implied probability against Tucker Carlson's arrest by May 31, driven by the absence of any official DOJ charges, indictment, or investigation confirmation following his mid-March 2026 claims of a CIA criminal referral for alleged Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) violations tied to Iran war commentary. Trump administration officials promptly dismissed these allegations as unfounded, with no subsequent agency actions, court filings, or special counsel developments reported in the intervening weeks. This skepticism aligns with historical patterns where unverified personal claims rarely lead to swift federal prosecutions absent concrete evidence, leaving significant barriers to an arrest within the resolution window despite ongoing partisan speculation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-05-31
最新
最新
2026-05-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tucker Carlson is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects a 90.5% implied probability against Tucker Carlson's arrest by May 31, driven by the absence of any official DOJ charges, indictment, or investigation confirmation following his mid-March 2026 claims of a CIA criminal referral for alleged Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) violations tied to Iran war commentary. Trump administration officials promptly dismissed these allegations as unfounded, with no subsequent agency actions, court filings, or special counsel developments reported in the intervening weeks. This skepticism aligns with historical patterns where unverified personal claims rarely lead to swift federal prosecutions absent concrete evidence, leaving significant barriers to an arrest within the resolution window despite ongoing partisan speculation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tucker Carlson is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 7, 2026, 2:39 PM ET
交易量
$1,197结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 7, 2026, 2:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tucker Carlson is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects a 90.5% implied probability against Tucker Carlson's arrest by May 31, driven by the absence of any official DOJ charges, indictment, or investigation confirmation following his mid-March 2026 claims of a CIA criminal referral for alleged Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) violations tied to Iran war commentary. Trump administration officials promptly dismissed these allegations as unfounded, with no subsequent agency actions, court filings, or special counsel developments reported in the intervening weeks. This skepticism aligns with historical patterns where unverified personal claims rarely lead to swift federal prosecutions absent concrete evidence, leaving significant barriers to an arrest within the resolution window despite ongoing partisan speculation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tucker Carlson is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$1,197结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 7, 2026, 2:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 90.5% implied probability against Tucker Carlson's arrest by May 31, driven by the absence of any official DOJ charges, indictment, or investigation confirmation following his mid-March 2026 claims of a CIA criminal referral for alleged Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) violations tied to Iran war commentary. Trump administration officials promptly dismissed these allegations as unfounded, with no subsequent agency actions, court filings, or special counsel developments reported in the intervening weeks. This skepticism aligns with historical patterns where unverified personal claims rarely lead to swift federal prosecutions absent concrete evidence, leaving significant barriers to an arrest within the resolution window despite ongoing partisan speculation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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