Virginia’s 11th congressional district remains a deep Democratic stronghold in suburban Northern Virginia, anchored by consistent large margins in recent cycles and a Cook Partisan Voting Index exceeding D+18. Incumbent James Walkinshaw secured the seat in the September 2025 special election with roughly 75 percent of the vote after Gerry Connolly’s death and enters the 2026 cycle with substantial fundraising and primary positioning ahead of the August 4 Democratic primary. Republican nominee Arthur Purves faces structural headwinds in a district that has not elected a Republican to the House in decades. Trader consensus at 95.7 percent Democratic reflects these fundamentals, though a national Republican wave, successful redistricting challenge, or late-cycle scandal could still narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$19,406 交易量
$19,406 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
95%
共和党
4%
$19,406 交易量
$19,406 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$12,280 交易量
95%
共和党
$7,126 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Virginia’s 11th congressional district remains a deep Democratic stronghold in suburban Northern Virginia, anchored by consistent large margins in recent cycles and a Cook Partisan Voting Index exceeding D+18. Incumbent James Walkinshaw secured the seat in the September 2025 special election with roughly 75 percent of the vote after Gerry Connolly’s death and enters the 2026 cycle with substantial fundraising and primary positioning ahead of the August 4 Democratic primary. Republican nominee Arthur Purves faces structural headwinds in a district that has not elected a Republican to the House in decades. Trader consensus at 95.7 percent Democratic reflects these fundamentals, though a national Republican wave, successful redistricting challenge, or late-cycle scandal could still narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$19,406结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Virginia’s 11th congressional district remains a deep Democratic stronghold in suburban Northern Virginia, anchored by consistent large margins in recent cycles and a Cook Partisan Voting Index exceeding D+18. Incumbent James Walkinshaw secured the seat in the September 2025 special election with roughly 75 percent of the vote after Gerry Connolly’s death and enters the 2026 cycle with substantial fundraising and primary positioning ahead of the August 4 Democratic primary. Republican nominee Arthur Purves faces structural headwinds in a district that has not elected a Republican to the House in decades. Trader consensus at 95.7 percent Democratic reflects these fundamentals, though a national Republican wave, successful redistricting challenge, or late-cycle scandal could still narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$19,406结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Virginia’s 11th congressional district remains a deep Democratic stronghold in suburban Northern Virginia, anchored by consistent large margins in recent cycles and a Cook Partisan Voting Index exceeding D+18. Incumbent James Walkinshaw secured the seat in the September 2025 special election with roughly 75 percent of the vote after Gerry Connolly’s death and enters the 2026 cycle with substantial fundraising and primary positioning ahead of the August 4 Democratic primary. Republican nominee Arthur Purves faces structural headwinds in a district that has not elected a Republican to the House in decades. Trader consensus at 95.7 percent Democratic reflects these fundamentals, though a national Republican wave, successful redistricting challenge, or late-cycle scandal could still narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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