US naval blockade of Iranian ports, enforced since April 13 after failed talks in Pakistan, represents the latest military escalation without qualifying drone, missile, or airstrikes on Iranian soil, driving low trader consensus for Gulf states like UAE (9%) or Saudi Arabia (5%) to initiate such actions by April 30. President Trump's April 15 declaration that the campaign is "very close to over," backed by Senate rejection of war powers limits, signals de-escalation potential amid possible resumed negotiations this week. Iran threatens Gulf shipping retaliation, but earlier US-Israeli airstrikes on Tehran and infrastructure in late March have not prompted allied aerial responses, with focus now on naval enforcement and diplomacy.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$2,748,496 交易量
2026-04-30
阿联酋
8%
沙特阿拉伯
6%
科威特
3%
卡塔尔
2%
土耳其
2%
巴林
2%
英国
2%
约旦
2%
任何欧盟国家
1%
阿曼
1%
德国
1%
加拿大
<1%
法国
<1%
$2,748,496 交易量
阿联酋
$1,331,546 交易量
8%
沙特阿拉伯
$509,847 交易量
6%
科威特
$115,149 交易量
3%
卡塔尔
$27,577 交易量
2%
土耳其
$68,982 交易量
2%
巴林
$45,099 交易量
2%
英国
$220,823 交易量
2%
约旦
$19,699 交易量
2%
任何欧盟国家
$44,723 交易量
1%
阿曼
$30,114 交易量
1%
德国
$120,111 交易量
1%
加拿大
$39,857 交易量
<1%
法国
$174,968 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US naval blockade of Iranian ports, enforced since April 13 after failed talks in Pakistan, represents the latest military escalation without qualifying drone, missile, or airstrikes on Iranian soil, driving low trader consensus for Gulf states like UAE (9%) or Saudi Arabia (5%) to initiate such actions by April 30. President Trump's April 15 declaration that the campaign is "very close to over," backed by Senate rejection of war powers limits, signals de-escalation potential amid possible resumed negotiations this week. Iran threatens Gulf shipping retaliation, but earlier US-Israeli airstrikes on Tehran and infrastructure in late March have not prompted allied aerial responses, with focus now on naval enforcement and diplomacy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ET
交易量
$2,748,496结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US naval blockade of Iranian ports, enforced since April 13 after failed talks in Pakistan, represents the latest military escalation without qualifying drone, missile, or airstrikes on Iranian soil, driving low trader consensus for Gulf states like UAE (9%) or Saudi Arabia (5%) to initiate such actions by April 30. President Trump's April 15 declaration that the campaign is "very close to over," backed by Senate rejection of war powers limits, signals de-escalation potential amid possible resumed negotiations this week. Iran threatens Gulf shipping retaliation, but earlier US-Israeli airstrikes on Tehran and infrastructure in late March have not prompted allied aerial responses, with focus now on naval enforcement and diplomacy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$2,748,496结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US naval blockade of Iranian ports, enforced since April 13 after failed talks in Pakistan, represents the latest military escalation without qualifying drone, missile, or airstrikes on Iranian soil, driving low trader consensus for Gulf states like UAE (9%) or Saudi Arabia (5%) to initiate such actions by April 30. President Trump's April 15 declaration that the campaign is "very close to over," backed by Senate rejection of war powers limits, signals de-escalation potential amid possible resumed negotiations this week. Iran threatens Gulf shipping retaliation, but earlier US-Israeli airstrikes on Tehran and infrastructure in late March have not prompted allied aerial responses, with focus now on naval enforcement and diplomacy.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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